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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (74-Hand Stress Test)

Head-to-head matrix S371-0 subjects HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) with 90 units and a 65-unit roof, models 4.68u versus 1.82u in mathematical house hold and 15.17% versus 7.41% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
15.17%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
7.41%
Peak Trough (11-Run)
-65u
No-Comm Streak House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S371 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (No-Comm Streak)

Stress cell S371 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 74 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
15.17% vs 7.41%

Probability of exhausting the 90-unit bankroll under a 65-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
4.68u vs 1.82u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 74 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-65u vs -27u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 11-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 2.90u Drag

Reflects 8.11% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 2.90u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S371 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step capital-bounded envelope (74 Hands · S371)

Combinatorial stress ledger S371-1 measures Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 74 coups (90u bankroll, 65u max bet), demonstrating that 1.4579% house edge and 11-hand runs enforce 15.17% vs 7.41% ruin along the bankroll-constrained capital-runway.

Head-to-head matrix S371-2 subjects HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) with 90 units and a 65-unit roof, dissects 4.68u versus 1.82u in mathematical house hold and 15.17% versus 7.41% ruin.

S371 envelopeHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
74-Hand Ruin (90u)15.17%7.41%
No-Comm Streak Hold (1.4579%)4.68u1.82u
11-Run Trough (65u Cap)-65u-27u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm Streak Vigorish (2.90u) & 8.11% Tie Push Audit (S371)

Combinatorial stress ledger S371-3 quantifies Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 74 coups (90u bankroll, 65u max bet), demonstrating that 1.4579% house edge and 11-hand runs enforce 15.17% vs 7.41% ruin along the absorbing-barrier absorption-curve.

Head-to-head matrix S371-4 subjects HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) with 90 units and a 65-unit roof, computes 4.68u versus 1.82u in mathematical house hold and 15.17% versus 7.41% ruin.

  • Trial S371: set a 90u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 74 hands.
  • Scenario S371 dissects 2.90u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S371: derived road red marks capital-bounded column repetition and blue marks a structural break (envelope), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 74 hands on a 90-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 4.68u expected loss (15.17% ruin) vs 1.82u (7.41% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 11-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android