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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP
Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (75-Hand Stress Test)
Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S368-0 (75 hands, 80u stack, 60u table limit) documents how 6 tie stalls (8.4%) and a 9-coup run shape capital-bounded progression-curve, yielding 19.03% vs 7.63% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
- 19.03%
- Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
- 7.63%
- Peak Trough (9-Run)
- -58u
- 5% Comm Streak House Edge
- 1.0579%