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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (75-Hand Stress Test)

Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S368-0 (75 hands, 80u stack, 60u table limit) documents how 6 tie stalls (8.4%) and a 9-coup run shape capital-bounded progression-curve, yielding 19.03% vs 7.63% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
19.03%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
7.63%
Peak Trough (9-Run)
-58u
5% Comm Streak House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S368 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (5% Comm Streak)

Stress cell S368 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 75 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
19.03% vs 7.63%

Probability of exhausting the 80-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
3.44u vs 1.34u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 75 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-58u vs -26u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 9-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 1.65u Drag

Reflects 8.4% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 1.65u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S368 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step step-indexed survival-window (75 Hands · S368)

Stress test S368-1 audits Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) against Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet (1-3-7 cap) inside a 80-unit bankroll over 75 hands (5% Comm Streak, streak), where a 60-unit table ceiling produces 19.03% vs 7.63% ruin rates and charts 1.65u in sequential vigorish drag.

Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S368-2 (75 hands, 80u stack, 60u table limit) profiles how 6 tie stalls (8.4%) and a 9-coup run shape bankroll-constrained ledger, yielding 19.03% vs 7.63% ruin.

S368 survival-windowHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
75-Hand Ruin (80u)19.03%7.63%
5% Comm Streak Hold (1.0579%)3.44u1.34u
9-Run Trough (60u Cap)-58u-26u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm Streak Vigorish (1.65u) & 8.4% Tie Push Audit (S368)

Stress test S368-3 verifies Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) against Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet (1-3-7 cap) inside a 80-unit bankroll over 75 hands (5% Comm Streak, streak), where a 60-unit table ceiling produces 19.03% vs 7.63% ruin rates and calibrates 1.65u in stochastic vigorish drag.

Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S368-4 (75 hands, 80u stack, 60u table limit) benchmarks how 6 tie stalls (8.4%) and a 9-coup run shape absorbing-barrier excursion, yielding 19.03% vs 7.63% ruin.

  • Trial S368: set a 80u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 75 hands.
  • Scenario S368 documents 1.65u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.4% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S368: derived road red marks step-indexed column repetition and blue marks a structural break (survival-window), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 75 hands on a 80-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 3.44u expected loss (19.03% ruin) vs 1.34u (7.63% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 9-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android