Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math & Odds Hub
  3. HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (Player High-Tie)
STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers (210-Hand Stress Test)

Head-to-head matrix S378-0 subjects HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 210 hands of Player High-Tie (high-tie) with 130 units and a 85-unit roof, benchmarks 11.25u versus 4.37u in mathematical house hold and 40.97% versus 13.66% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
40.97%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
13.66%
Peak Trough (4-Run)
-31u
Player High-Tie House Edge
1.2351%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S378 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (Player High-Tie)

Stress cell S378 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 210 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
40.97% vs 13.66%

Probability of exhausting the 130-unit bankroll under a 85-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
11.25u vs 4.37u

Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 210 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-31u vs -16u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
32 Ties · 5.40u Drag

Reflects 15.24% tie frequency (32 pushes) and 5.40u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S378 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step asymmetric turnover (210 Hands · S378)

Combinatorial stress ledger S378-1 tracks Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 210 coups (130u bankroll, 85u max bet), demonstrating that 1.2351% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 40.97% vs 13.66% ruin along the discrete-time volatility-band.

Head-to-head matrix S378-2 subjects HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 210 hands of Player High-Tie (high-tie) with 130 units and a 85-unit roof, calibrates 11.25u versus 4.37u in mathematical house hold and 40.97% versus 13.66% ruin.

S378 turnoverHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
210-Hand Ruin (130u)40.97%13.66%
Player High-Tie Hold (1.2351%)11.25u4.37u
4-Run Trough (85u Cap)-31u-16u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

Player High-Tie Vigorish (5.40u) & 15.24% Tie Push Audit (S378)

Combinatorial stress ledger S378-3 tabulates Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet across 210 coups (130u bankroll, 85u max bet), demonstrating that 1.2351% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 40.97% vs 13.66% ruin along the capital-bounded survival-window.

Head-to-head matrix S378-4 subjects HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step (1-3-7 cap) to 210 hands of Player High-Tie (high-tie) with 130 units and a 85-unit roof, models 11.25u versus 4.37u in mathematical house hold and 40.97% versus 13.66% ruin.

  • Trial S378: set a 130u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 210 hands.
  • Scenario S378 tracks 5.40u in commission drag and 32 tie pushes (15.24% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S378: derived road red marks asymmetric column repetition and blue marks a structural break (turnover), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers neutralizes the 1.2351% house edge.
TruthOver 210 hands on a 130-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 11.25u expected loss (40.97% ruin) vs 4.37u (13.66% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 4-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android