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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP
Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (80-Hand Stress Test)
Benchmark S372-0 tracks the finite-shoe survival-window between HK 6-Step and Macau 3-Step over 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie: with 85 units, a 60-unit cap, and 1.4579% house edge, ruin settles at 22.98% vs 8.57% while discrete-time decay-rate reaches -36u. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
- 22.98%
- Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
- 8.57%
- Peak Trough (5-Run)
- -36u
- No-Comm High-Tie House Edge
- 1.4579%