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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (152-Hand Stress Test)

Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S375-0 (152 hands, 110u stack, 75u table limit) maps how 26 tie stalls (17.11%) and a 5-coup run shape commission-adjusted decay-rate, yielding 34.47% vs 11.13% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
34.47%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
11.13%
Peak Trough (5-Run)
-39u
EZ High-Tie House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S375 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (EZ High-Tie)

Stress cell S375 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 152 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
34.47% vs 11.13%

Probability of exhausting the 110-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.78u vs 2.63u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 152 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-39u vs -20u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
26 Ties · 3.25u Drag

Reflects 17.11% tie frequency (26 pushes) and 3.25u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S375 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step bankroll-constrained boundary (152 Hands · S375)

Stress test S375-1 evaluates Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) against Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet (1-3-7 cap) inside a 110-unit bankroll over 152 hands (EZ High-Tie, high-tie), where a 75-unit table ceiling produces 34.47% vs 11.13% ruin rates and dissects 3.25u in multi-coup vigorish drag.

Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S375-2 (152 hands, 110u stack, 75u table limit) charts how 26 tie stalls (17.11%) and a 5-coup run shape discrete-time threshold, yielding 34.47% vs 11.13% ruin.

S375 boundaryHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
152-Hand Ruin (110u)34.47%11.13%
EZ High-Tie Hold (1.0284%)6.78u2.63u
5-Run Trough (75u Cap)-39u-20u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ High-Tie Vigorish (3.25u) & 17.11% Tie Push Audit (S375)

Stress test S375-3 inspects Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) against Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet (1-3-7 cap) inside a 110-unit bankroll over 152 hands (EZ High-Tie, high-tie), where a 75-unit table ceiling produces 34.47% vs 11.13% ruin rates and audits 3.25u in drawdown-weighted vigorish drag.

Evaluating HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step in scenario S375-4 (152 hands, 110u stack, 75u table limit) documents how 26 tie stalls (17.11%) and a 5-coup run shape capital-bounded footprint, yielding 34.47% vs 11.13% ruin.

  • Trial S375: set a 110u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 152 hands.
  • Scenario S375 computes 3.25u in commission drag and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S375: derived road red marks bankroll-constrained column repetition and blue marks a structural break (boundary), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 152 hands on a 110-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 6.78u expected loss (34.47% ruin) vs 2.63u (11.13% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 5-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android