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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers (140-Hand Stress Test)

Pairing a 95-unit bankroll against 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% edge) in cell S376-0 dissects HK 6-Step at 29.87% ruin and -26u peak volatility-band, whereas Macau 3-Step records 12.09% ruin and -11u below the 70-unit ceiling. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
29.87%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
12.09%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-26u
Player 1:1 Chop House Edge
1.2351%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S376 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (Player 1:1 Chop)

Stress cell S376 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 140 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
29.87% vs 12.09%

Probability of exhausting the 95-unit bankroll under a 70-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
7.50u vs 2.91u

Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 140 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-26u vs -11u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 3.60u Drag

Reflects 9.29% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 3.60u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S376 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step session-bounded cycle-span (140 Hands · S376)

Across 140 resolved and tied deals under Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% edge), variance-scaled comparison S376-1 quantifies Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise against Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet on a 95-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 70-unit ceiling drive 29.87% vs 12.09% stop-loss breaches along the non-stationary drawdown-slope.

Pairing a 95-unit bankroll against 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% edge) in cell S376-2 computes HK 6-Step at 29.87% ruin and -26u peak survival-window, whereas Macau 3-Step records 12.09% ruin and -11u below the 70-unit ceiling.

S376 cycle-spanHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
140-Hand Ruin (95u)29.87%12.09%
Player 1:1 Chop Hold (1.2351%)7.50u2.91u
2-Run Trough (70u Cap)-26u-11u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

Player 1:1 Chop Vigorish (3.60u) & 9.29% Tie Push Audit (S376)

Across 140 resolved and tied deals under Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% edge), session-bounded comparison S376-3 maps Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise against Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet on a 95-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 70-unit ceiling drive 29.87% vs 12.09% stop-loss breaches along the house-edge-anchored footprint.

Pairing a 95-unit bankroll against 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop (1.2351% edge) in cell S376-4 evaluates HK 6-Step at 29.87% ruin and -26u peak progression-curve, whereas Macau 3-Step records 12.09% ruin and -11u below the 70-unit ceiling.

  • Trial S376: set a 95u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 140 hands.
  • Scenario S376 benchmarks 3.60u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (9.29% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S376: derived road red marks session-bounded column repetition and blue marks a structural break (cycle-span), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers neutralizes the 1.2351% house edge.
TruthOver 140 hands on a 95-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 7.50u expected loss (29.87% ruin) vs 2.91u (12.09% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android