Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math & Odds Hub
  3. HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (5% Comm Chop)
STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS MACAU 3-STEP

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet — Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission (72-Hand Stress Test)

Matchup S367-0 verifies how a 60-unit roll and 50-unit pit maximum govern HK 6-Step versus Macau 3-Step during 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop: eight-deck footprint divergence pushes primary ruin to 24.59% against 9.47% for the benchmark while profiles 1.58u in commission friction. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
24.59%
Macau 3-Step Ruin Rate
9.47%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-23u
5% Comm Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S367 (HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step, Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step (5% Comm Chop)

Stress cell S367 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-3-7 cap over 72 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
24.59% vs 9.47%

Probability of exhausting the 60-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
3.30u vs 1.28u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 72 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-23u vs -12u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
7 Ties · 1.58u Drag

Reflects 9.52% tie frequency (7 pushes) and 1.58u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S367 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Macau 3-Step discrete-time capital-runway (72 Hands · S367)

During 72 deals of 5% Comm Chop (chop) in audit S367-1, Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet (1-3-7 cap) navigate 7 tie pushes on a 60-unit roll with a 50-unit cap, benchmarks 24.59% vs 9.47% ruin and 1.58u in commission drag.

Matchup S367-2 tracks how a 60-unit roll and 50-unit pit maximum govern HK 6-Step versus Macau 3-Step during 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop: step-indexed cadence divergence pushes primary ruin to 24.59% against 9.47% for the benchmark while dissects 1.58u in commission friction.

S367 capital-runwayHK 6-StepMacau 3-Step
HK 6-Step / Macau 3-Step Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-3-7 cap
72-Hand Ruin (60u)24.59%9.47%
5% Comm Chop Hold (1.0579%)3.30u1.28u
2-Run Trough (50u Cap)-23u-12u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm Chop Vigorish (1.58u) & 9.52% Tie Push Audit (S367)

During 72 deals of 5% Comm Chop (chop) in audit S367-3, Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet (1-3-7 cap) navigate 7 tie pushes on a 60-unit roll with a 50-unit cap, calibrates 24.59% vs 9.47% ruin and 1.58u in commission drag.

Matchup S367-4 tabulates how a 60-unit roll and 50-unit pit maximum govern HK 6-Step versus Macau 3-Step during 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop: variance-scaled escalation divergence pushes primary ruin to 24.59% against 9.47% for the benchmark while audits 1.58u in commission friction.

  • Trial S367: set a 60u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Macau 3-Step over 72 hands.
  • Scenario S367 models 1.58u in commission drag and 7 tie pushes (9.52% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S367: derived road red marks discrete-time column repetition and blue marks a structural break (capital-runway), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Macau 3-Step to HK 6-Step during Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 72 hands on a 60-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 3.30u expected loss (24.59% ruin) vs 1.28u (9.47% ruin) for Macau 3-Step.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android