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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · HK 6-STEP · 40U / 1-SHOE

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise — 40-Unit Bankroll & 1-Shoe (72-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Under finite-shoe boundary rules in M431-0, pairing Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum models a 35.44% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before step-indexed stake-velocity truncation. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
35.44%
Target Hit (+10u Cap)
35.74%
72-Hand Expected Hold
2.15u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
40u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M431 (Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise, 40u bankroll, 72 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
40u / 1 Shoes (72 Hands)

Matrix cell M431 tests Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise with a $25 base unit and -20u/+10u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
35.44%

Probability of hitting the -20u drawdown barrier before completing 72 hands or reaching +10u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
35.74%

Share of 72-hand trajectories reaching the +10u session ceiling, with 28.82% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (40u Cap)

A 40-unit house limit and 40-unit stack cap HK 6-Step escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
2.15u ($54)

Derived from 138u total action (1.92x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M431 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

HK 6-Step 40u asymmetric envelope Across 72 Hands (M431)

Audit M431-1 computes the session-bounded survival-window of HK 6-Step when anchored to 40 units and a 72-hand (1-shoe) schedule: the 40-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 35.44% stop-loss frequency and $54 in mathematical friction.

Under variance-scaled boundary rules in M431-2, pairing Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum inspects a 35.44% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before multi-coup cycle-span truncation.

M431 ParameterHK 6-Step (40u)1-Shoe envelope
HK 6-Step Ladder1-3-7-15-31-63 (6 steps)Peak 63u multiplier on M431
40u Stack Window72 hands (1 shoes)Barriers -20u / +10u
40u Ceiling & Ruin35.44% ruin vs 35.74% winDepth 6 steps (8 cap hits)
138u Handle & Hold2.15u ($54)Multiplier 1.92x (asymmetric drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

40u Ceiling Collisions & HK 6-Step Turnover (1 Shoes)

Audit M431-3 verifies the step-indexed progression-curve of HK 6-Step when anchored to 40 units and a 72-hand (1-shoe) schedule: the 40-unit maximum wager restricts recovery at step 6, locking in a 35.44% stop-loss frequency and $54 in mathematical friction.

Under eight-deck boundary rules in M431-4, pairing Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise with 40 units across 1 shoes (72 hands) and a 40-unit maximum tabulates a 35.44% stop-loss absorption rate, surviving at most 6 adverse steps before house-edge-anchored distribution truncation.

  • Cell M431 rule: lock the -20u stop on your 40u HK 6-Step stack across 72 hands.
  • Matrix M431 profiles 2.15u ($54) in house hold over 138u of HK 6-Step action.
  • Scoreboard check M431: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (asymmetric envelope) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 40 units to a 1-shoe session lets Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 72 hands, HK 6-Step generates 138u in action, 2.15u in expected loss, and a 35.44% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell HK 6-Step bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 72-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android