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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · HK 6-STEP · 100U / 5-SHOE

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise — 100-Unit Bankroll & 5-Shoe (360-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Case M440-0 profiles the session-bounded Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 71.25% ruin rate while quantifies an average stake dispersion of 3.29x and 18.41u ($921) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-50u Stop)
71.25%
Target Hit (+25u Cap)
27.36%
360-Hand Expected Hold
18.41u
Table Max (7-Step Depth)
80u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M440 (Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise, 100u bankroll, 360 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
100u / 5 Shoes (360 Hands)

Matrix cell M440 tests Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise with a $50 base unit and -50u/+25u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
71.25%

Probability of hitting the -50u drawdown barrier before completing 360 hands or reaching +25u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
27.36%

Share of 360-hand trajectories reaching the +25u session ceiling, with 1.39% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
7 Steps (80u Cap)

A 80-unit house limit and 100-unit stack cap HK 6-Step escalation after 7 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
18.41u ($921)

Derived from 1184u total action (3.29x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M440 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

HK 6-Step 100u stochastic cadence Across 360 Hands (M440)

In variance-scaled benchmark M440-1, running HK 6-Step across 360 deals with 100 units and a 80-unit maximum wager calibrates 1184u of total handle, 18.41u in commission-weighted drift, and a 71.25% probability of exhausting the 50-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M440-2 dissects the step-indexed Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 71.25% ruin rate while maps an average stake distribution of 3.29x and 18.41u ($921) in theoretical house-edge toll.

M440 ParameterHK 6-Step (100u)5-Shoe cadence
HK 6-Step Ladder1-3-7-15-31-63 (6 steps)Peak 63u multiplier on M440
100u Stack Window360 hands (5 shoes)Barriers -50u / +25u
80u Ceiling & Ruin71.25% ruin vs 27.36% winDepth 7 steps (20 cap hits)
1184u Handle & Hold18.41u ($921)Multiplier 3.29x (stochastic drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

80u Ceiling Collisions & HK 6-Step Turnover (5 Shoes)

In eight-deck benchmark M440-3, running HK 6-Step across 360 deals with 100 units and a 80-unit maximum wager evaluates 1184u of total handle, 18.41u in commission-weighted drift, and a 71.25% probability of exhausting the 50-unit drawdown buffer.

Case M440-4 audits the absorbing-barrier Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) across a 100-unit bankroll and a 360-hand (5-shoe) window, where a 80-unit table ceiling and 50-unit stop-loss produce a 71.25% ruin rate while charts an average stake envelope of 3.29x and 18.41u ($921) in theoretical house-edge toll.

  • Cell M440 rule: lock the -50u stop on your 100u HK 6-Step stack across 360 hands.
  • Matrix M440 tracks 18.41u ($921) in house hold over 1184u of HK 6-Step action.
  • Scoreboard check M440: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (stochastic cadence) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 100 units to a 5-shoe session lets Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 360 hands, HK 6-Step generates 1184u in action, 18.41u in expected loss, and a 71.25% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell HK 6-Step bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 360-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android