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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · HK 6-STEP · 100U / 2-SHOE

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise — 100-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

For a 100-unit roll spanning 144 hands (2 shoes), Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) evaluates a step-indexed survival-window under matrix M439-0, where the 50-unit table roof and -50u/+25u barriers yield 28.80% ruin versus 38.83% upside completion. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-50u Stop)
28.80%
Target Hit (+25u Cap)
38.83%
144-Hand Expected Hold
7.37u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
50u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M439 (Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise, 100u bankroll, 144 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
100u / 2 Shoes (144 Hands)

Matrix cell M439 tests Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise with a $25 base unit and -50u/+25u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
28.80%

Probability of hitting the -50u drawdown barrier before completing 144 hands or reaching +25u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
38.83%

Share of 144-hand trajectories reaching the +25u session ceiling, with 32.37% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (50u Cap)

A 50-unit house limit and 100-unit stack cap HK 6-Step escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
7.37u ($184)

Derived from 474u total action (3.29x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M439 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

HK 6-Step 100u bankroll-constrained absorption-curve Across 144 Hands (M439)

Combinatorial ledger M439-1 audits HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) at 100 units and 144 hands (2 shoes), proving that a 50-unit table ceiling and 3.29x average bet multiplier yield 28.80% ruin probability and 7.37u in theoretical house hold.

For a 100-unit roll spanning 144 hands (2 shoes), Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) tracks a absorbing-barrier progression-curve under matrix M439-2, where the 50-unit table roof and -50u/+25u barriers yield 28.80% ruin versus 38.83% upside completion.

M439 ParameterHK 6-Step (100u)2-Shoe absorption-curve
HK 6-Step Ladder1-3-7-15-31-63 (6 steps)Peak 63u multiplier on M439
100u Stack Window144 hands (2 shoes)Barriers -50u / +25u
50u Ceiling & Ruin28.80% ruin vs 38.83% winDepth 6 steps (13 cap hits)
474u Handle & Hold7.37u ($184)Multiplier 3.29x (bankroll-constrained drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

50u Ceiling Collisions & HK 6-Step Turnover (2 Shoes)

Combinatorial ledger M439-3 measures HK 6-Step (1-3-7-15-31-63) at 100 units and 144 hands (2 shoes), proving that a 50-unit table ceiling and 3.29x average bet multiplier yield 28.80% ruin probability and 7.37u in theoretical house hold.

For a 100-unit roll spanning 144 hands (2 shoes), Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) maps a capital-bounded ledger under matrix M439-4, where the 50-unit table roof and -50u/+25u barriers yield 28.80% ruin versus 38.83% upside completion.

  • Cell M439 rule: lock the -50u stop on your 100u HK 6-Step stack across 144 hands.
  • Matrix M439 inspects 7.37u ($184) in house hold over 474u of HK 6-Step action.
  • Scoreboard check M439: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (bankroll-constrained absorption-curve) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 100 units to a 2-shoe session lets Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 144 hands, HK 6-Step generates 474u in action, 7.37u in expected loss, and a 28.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell HK 6-Step bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 144-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android