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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS 1-3-2-6

Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers (216-Hand Stress Test)

When Player 1:1 Streak (streak) injects a 8-hand extreme run and 20 tie pushes (9.26% Tie density) over 216 coups, stochastic audit S335-0 profiles Grand Martingale (2x+1) at 17.26u expected erosion (62.46% ruin) compared with 4.11u (11.81% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on 140 units. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
62.46%
1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
11.81%
Peak Trough (8-Run)
-62u
Player 1:1 Streak House Edge
1.2351%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S335 (Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6, Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 (Player 1:1 Streak)

Stress cell S335 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-3-2-6 over 216 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
62.46% vs 11.81%

Probability of exhausting the 140-unit bankroll under a 90-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
17.26u vs 4.11u

Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 216 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-62u vs -25u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 8-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
20 Ties · 8.28u Drag

Reflects 9.26% tie frequency (20 pushes) and 8.28u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S335 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Grand Martingale vs. 1-3-2-6 stochastic decay-rate (216 Hands · S335)

Benchmark S335-1 verifies the absorbing-barrier footprint between Grand Martingale and 1-3-2-6 over 216 hands of Player 1:1 Streak: with 140 units, a 90-unit cap, and 1.2351% house edge, ruin settles at 62.46% vs 11.81% while discrete-time drawdown-slope reaches -62u.

When Player 1:1 Streak (streak) injects a 8-hand extreme run and 20 tie pushes (9.26% Tie density) over 216 coups, house-edge-anchored audit S335-2 benchmarks Grand Martingale (2x+1) at 17.26u expected erosion (62.46% ruin) compared with 4.11u (11.81% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on 140 units.

S335 decay-rateGrand Martingale1-3-2-6
Grand Martingale / 1-3-2-6 Rule1-3-7-15-31-63-1271-3-2-6
216-Hand Ruin (140u)62.46%11.81%
Player 1:1 Streak Hold (1.2351%)17.26u4.11u
8-Run Trough (90u Cap)-62u-25u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

Player 1:1 Streak Vigorish (8.28u) & 9.26% Tie Push Audit (S335)

Benchmark S335-3 tracks the eight-deck cadence between Grand Martingale and 1-3-2-6 over 216 hands of Player 1:1 Streak: with 140 units, a 90-unit cap, and 1.2351% house edge, ruin settles at 62.46% vs 11.81% while asymmetric footprint reaches -62u.

When Player 1:1 Streak (streak) injects a 8-hand extreme run and 20 tie pushes (9.26% Tie density) over 216 coups, table-capped audit S335-4 calibrates Grand Martingale (2x+1) at 17.26u expected erosion (62.46% ruin) compared with 4.11u (11.81% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on 140 units.

  • Trial S335: set a 140u stop before running Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 over 216 hands.
  • Scenario S335 quantifies 8.28u in commission drag and 20 tie pushes (9.26% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S335: derived road red marks stochastic column repetition and blue marks a structural break (decay-rate), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-3-2-6 to Grand Martingale during Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers neutralizes the 1.2351% house edge.
TruthOver 216 hands on a 140-unit stack, Grand Martingale carries 17.26u expected loss (62.46% ruin) vs 4.11u (11.81% ruin) for 1-3-2-6.
MythDuring a 8-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android