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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS 1-3-2-6

Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (74-Hand Stress Test)

Under No-Comm Streak (1.4579% effective edge), sequential stress run S329-0 over 74 hands and a 90-unit treasury verifies a -81u drawdown (34.16% ruin) for Grand Martingale (2x+1) against -29u (6.85% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence inside a 65-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
34.16%
1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
6.85%
Peak Trough (11-Run)
-81u
No-Comm Streak House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S329 (Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6, 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 (No-Comm Streak)

Stress cell S329 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-3-2-6 over 74 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
34.16% vs 6.85%

Probability of exhausting the 90-unit bankroll under a 65-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
6.98u vs 1.66u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 74 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-81u vs -29u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 11-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 4.33u Drag

Reflects 8.11% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 4.33u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S329 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Grand Martingale vs. 1-3-2-6 capital-bounded drawdown-slope (74 Hands · S329)

In bankroll-constrained comparative trial S329-1, running Grand Martingale against 1-3-2-6 for 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) on 90 units benchmarks 6.98u vs 1.66u in expected toll and 34.16% vs 6.85% ruin under a 65-unit pit limit.

Under No-Comm Streak (1.4579% effective edge), stochastic stress run S329-2 over 74 hands and a 90-unit treasury tracks a -81u drawdown (34.16% ruin) for Grand Martingale (2x+1) against -29u (6.85% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence inside a 65-unit cap.

S329 drawdown-slopeGrand Martingale1-3-2-6
Grand Martingale / 1-3-2-6 Rule1-3-7-15-31-63-1271-3-2-6
74-Hand Ruin (90u)34.16%6.85%
No-Comm Streak Hold (1.4579%)6.98u1.66u
11-Run Trough (65u Cap)-81u-29u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm Streak Vigorish (4.33u) & 8.11% Tie Push Audit (S329)

In absorbing-barrier comparative trial S329-3, running Grand Martingale against 1-3-2-6 for 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (streak) on 90 units calibrates 6.98u vs 1.66u in expected toll and 34.16% vs 6.85% ruin under a 65-unit pit limit.

Under No-Comm Streak (1.4579% effective edge), house-edge-anchored stress run S329-4 over 74 hands and a 90-unit treasury tabulates a -81u drawdown (34.16% ruin) for Grand Martingale (2x+1) against -29u (6.85% ruin) for 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence inside a 65-unit cap.

  • Trial S329: set a 90u stop before running Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 over 74 hands.
  • Scenario S329 models 4.33u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S329: derived road red marks capital-bounded column repetition and blue marks a structural break (drawdown-slope), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-3-2-6 to Grand Martingale during 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 74 hands on a 90-unit stack, Grand Martingale carries 6.98u expected loss (34.16% ruin) vs 1.66u (6.85% ruin) for 1-3-2-6.
MythDuring a 11-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
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