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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS 1-3-2-6

Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (152-Hand Stress Test)

Within commission-adjusted testbed S333-0, a 110-unit bankroll facing 152 coups of EZ High-Tie (high-tie) and a 75-unit maximum wager models 45.50% ruin (10.11u expected loss) on Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 10.19% ruin (2.41u expected loss) on 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
45.50%
1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
10.19%
Peak Trough (5-Run)
-47u
EZ High-Tie House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S333 (Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6, Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 (EZ High-Tie)

Stress cell S333 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-3-2-6 over 152 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
45.50% vs 10.19%

Probability of exhausting the 110-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
10.11u vs 2.41u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 152 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-47u vs -18u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
26 Ties · 4.85u Drag

Reflects 17.11% tie frequency (26 pushes) and 4.85u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S333 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Grand Martingale vs. 1-3-2-6 bankroll-constrained capital-runway (152 Hands · S333)

In head-to-head trial S333-1 across 152 deals (EZ High-Tie, 1.0284% edge), Grand Martingale records a -47u peak absorption-curve and 45.50% ruin probability on a 110-unit stack, whereas 1-3-2-6 logs a -18u trough and 10.19% ruin under the 75-unit limit.

Within discrete-time testbed S333-2, a 110-unit bankroll facing 152 coups of EZ High-Tie (high-tie) and a 75-unit maximum wager dissects 45.50% ruin (10.11u expected loss) on Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 10.19% ruin (2.41u expected loss) on 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence.

S333 capital-runwayGrand Martingale1-3-2-6
Grand Martingale / 1-3-2-6 Rule1-3-7-15-31-63-1271-3-2-6
152-Hand Ruin (110u)45.50%10.19%
EZ High-Tie Hold (1.0284%)10.11u2.41u
5-Run Trough (75u Cap)-47u-18u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ High-Tie Vigorish (4.85u) & 17.11% Tie Push Audit (S333)

In head-to-head trial S333-3 across 152 deals (EZ High-Tie, 1.0284% edge), Grand Martingale records a -47u peak stake-velocity and 45.50% ruin probability on a 110-unit stack, whereas 1-3-2-6 logs a -18u trough and 10.19% ruin under the 75-unit limit.

Within capital-bounded testbed S333-4, a 110-unit bankroll facing 152 coups of EZ High-Tie (high-tie) and a 75-unit maximum wager computes 45.50% ruin (10.11u expected loss) on Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 10.19% ruin (2.41u expected loss) on 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence.

  • Trial S333: set a 110u stop before running Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 over 152 hands.
  • Scenario S333 dissects 4.85u in commission drag and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S333: derived road red marks bankroll-constrained column repetition and blue marks a structural break (capital-runway), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-3-2-6 to Grand Martingale during Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 152 hands on a 110-unit stack, Grand Martingale carries 10.11u expected loss (45.50% ruin) vs 2.41u (10.19% ruin) for 1-3-2-6.
MythDuring a 5-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android