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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS 1-3-2-6

Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (78-Hand Stress Test)

Combinatorial stress ledger S327-0 measures Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence across 78 coups (75u bankroll, 50u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 33.01% vs 7.96% ruin along the asymmetric stake-velocity. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
33.01%
1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
7.96%
Peak Trough (4-Run)
-40u
5% Comm High-Tie House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S327 (Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6, 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 (5% Comm High-Tie)

Stress cell S327 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-3-2-6 over 78 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
33.01% vs 7.96%

Probability of exhausting the 75-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
5.34u vs 1.27u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 78 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-40u vs -15u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 2.56u Drag

Reflects 16.67% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 2.56u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S327 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Grand Martingale vs. 1-3-2-6 drawdown-weighted profile (78 Hands · S327)

Head-to-head matrix S327-1 subjects Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) and 1-3-2-6 (1-3-2-6) to 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) with 75 units and a 50-unit roof, dissects 5.34u versus 1.27u in mathematical house hold and 33.01% versus 7.96% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S327-2 quantifies Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence across 78 coups (75u bankroll, 50u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 33.01% vs 7.96% ruin along the commission-adjusted drawdown-slope.

S327 profileGrand Martingale1-3-2-6
Grand Martingale / 1-3-2-6 Rule1-3-7-15-31-63-1271-3-2-6
78-Hand Ruin (75u)33.01%7.96%
5% Comm High-Tie Hold (1.0579%)5.34u1.27u
4-Run Trough (50u Cap)-40u-15u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm High-Tie Vigorish (2.56u) & 16.67% Tie Push Audit (S327)

Head-to-head matrix S327-3 subjects Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) and 1-3-2-6 (1-3-2-6) to 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) with 75 units and a 50-unit roof, computes 5.34u versus 1.27u in mathematical house hold and 33.01% versus 7.96% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S327-4 maps Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence across 78 coups (75u bankroll, 50u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 4-hand runs enforce 33.01% vs 7.96% ruin along the discrete-time volatility-band.

  • Trial S327: set a 75u stop before running Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 over 78 hands.
  • Scenario S327 tabulates 2.56u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (16.67% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S327: derived road red marks drawdown-weighted column repetition and blue marks a structural break (profile), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-3-2-6 to Grand Martingale during 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 78 hands on a 75-unit stack, Grand Martingale carries 5.34u expected loss (33.01% ruin) vs 1.27u (7.96% ruin) for 1-3-2-6.
MythDuring a 4-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

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  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android