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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS 1-3-2-6

Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission (288-Hand Stress Test)

During 288 deals of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) in audit S337-0, Grand Martingale (2x+1) (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) and 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence (1-3-2-6) navigate 27 tie pushes on a 160-unit roll with a 100-unit cap, maps 45.88% vs 14.12% ruin and 9.46u in commission drag. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
45.88%
1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
14.12%
Peak Trough (3-Run)
-32u
4-Shoe Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S337 (Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 (4-Shoe Chop)

Stress cell S337 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-3-2-6 over 288 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
45.88% vs 14.12%

Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
19.71u vs 4.69u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-32u vs -13u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
27 Ties · 9.46u Drag

Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 9.46u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S337 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Grand Martingale vs. 1-3-2-6 absorbing-barrier envelope (288 Hands · S337)

Matchup S337-1 evaluates how a 160-unit roll and 100-unit pit maximum govern Grand Martingale versus 1-3-2-6 during 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop: combinatorial capital-runway divergence pushes primary ruin to 45.88% against 14.12% for the benchmark while dissects 9.46u in commission friction.

During 288 deals of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) in audit S337-2, Grand Martingale (2x+1) (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) and 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence (1-3-2-6) navigate 27 tie pushes on a 160-unit roll with a 100-unit cap, charts 45.88% vs 14.12% ruin and 9.46u in commission drag.

S337 envelopeGrand Martingale1-3-2-6
Grand Martingale / 1-3-2-6 Rule1-3-7-15-31-63-1271-3-2-6
288-Hand Ruin (160u)45.88%14.12%
4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%)19.71u4.69u
3-Run Trough (100u Cap)-32u-13u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

4-Shoe Chop Vigorish (9.46u) & 9.38% Tie Push Audit (S337)

Matchup S337-3 inspects how a 160-unit roll and 100-unit pit maximum govern Grand Martingale versus 1-3-2-6 during 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop: asymmetric absorption-curve divergence pushes primary ruin to 45.88% against 14.12% for the benchmark while audits 9.46u in commission friction.

During 288 deals of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) in audit S337-4, Grand Martingale (2x+1) (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) and 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence (1-3-2-6) navigate 27 tie pushes on a 160-unit roll with a 100-unit cap, documents 45.88% vs 14.12% ruin and 9.46u in commission drag.

  • Trial S337: set a 160u stop before running Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 over 288 hands.
  • Scenario S337 computes 9.46u in commission drag and 27 tie pushes (9.38% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S337: derived road red marks absorbing-barrier column repetition and blue marks a structural break (envelope), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-3-2-6 to Grand Martingale during Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 288 hands on a 160-unit stack, Grand Martingale carries 19.71u expected loss (45.88% ruin) vs 4.69u (14.12% ruin) for 1-3-2-6.
MythDuring a 3-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android