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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS 1-3-2-6

Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence — Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission (72-Hand Stress Test)

Across 72 resolved and tied deals under 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge), eight-deck comparison S325-0 charts Grand Martingale (2x+1) against 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on a 60-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 32.52% vs 8.65% stop-loss breaches along the commission-adjusted decay-rate. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
32.52%
1-3-2-6 Ruin Rate
8.65%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-26u
5% Comm Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P B P B P P B B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S325 (Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6, Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 (5% Comm Chop)

Stress cell S325 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-3-2-6 over 72 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
32.52% vs 8.65%

Probability of exhausting the 60-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
4.93u vs 1.17u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 72 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-26u vs -14u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
7 Ties · 2.37u Drag

Reflects 9.52% tie frequency (7 pushes) and 2.37u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S325 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Grand Martingale vs. 1-3-2-6 discrete-time progression-curve (72 Hands · S325)

Pairing a 60-unit bankroll against 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge) in cell S325-1 inspects Grand Martingale at 32.52% ruin and -26u peak drawdown-slope, whereas 1-3-2-6 records 8.65% ruin and -14u below the 50-unit ceiling.

Across 72 resolved and tied deals under 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge), step-indexed comparison S325-2 documents Grand Martingale (2x+1) against 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on a 60-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 32.52% vs 8.65% stop-loss breaches along the combinatorial distribution.

S325 progression-curveGrand Martingale1-3-2-6
Grand Martingale / 1-3-2-6 Rule1-3-7-15-31-63-1271-3-2-6
72-Hand Ruin (60u)32.52%8.65%
5% Comm Chop Hold (1.0579%)4.93u1.17u
2-Run Trough (50u Cap)-26u-14u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm Chop Vigorish (2.37u) & 9.52% Tie Push Audit (S325)

Pairing a 60-unit bankroll against 72 hands of 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge) in cell S325-3 audits Grand Martingale at 32.52% ruin and -26u peak volatility-band, whereas 1-3-2-6 records 8.65% ruin and -14u below the 50-unit ceiling.

Across 72 resolved and tied deals under 5% Comm Chop (1.0579% edge), variance-scaled comparison S325-4 profiles Grand Martingale (2x+1) against 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence on a 60-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 32.52% vs 8.65% stop-loss breaches along the table-capped survival-window.

  • Trial S325: set a 60u stop before running Grand Martingale vs 1-3-2-6 over 72 hands.
  • Scenario S325 calibrates 2.37u in commission drag and 7 tie pushes (9.52% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S325: derived road red marks discrete-time column repetition and blue marks a structural break (progression-curve), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from 1-3-2-6 to Grand Martingale during Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 72 hands on a 60-unit stack, Grand Martingale carries 4.93u expected loss (32.52% ruin) vs 1.17u (8.65% ruin) for 1-3-2-6.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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