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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · GRAND MARTINGALE · 500U / 2-SHOE
Grand Martingale (2x+1) — 500-Unit Bankroll & 2-Shoe (144-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix
When a 500-unit stack enters a 2-shoe (144-hand) session using Grand Martingale (2x+1), finite-shoe model M149-0 tracks 883u in cumulative action and a 9.54% barrier-absorption probability before the 50-unit table maximum truncates the step-indexed decay-rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.
- Ruin Rate (-250u Stop)
- 9.54%
- Target Hit (+125u Cap)
- 44.22%
- 144-Hand Expected Hold
- 15.69u
- Table Max (6-Step Depth)
- 50u