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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · GRAND MARTINGALE · 40U / 10-SHOE
Grand Martingale (2x+1) — 40-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix
Case M133-0 dissects the table-capped Grand Martingale (2x+1) (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) across a 40-unit bankroll and a 720-hand (10-shoe) window, where a 100-unit table ceiling and 20-unit stop-loss produce a 94.80% ruin rate while measures an average stake volatility-band of 2.34x and 29.95u ($2995) in theoretical house-edge toll. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.
- Ruin Rate (-20u Stop)
- 94.80%
- Target Hit (+10u Cap)
- 19.94%
- 720-Hand Expected Hold
- 29.95u
- Table Max (6-Step Depth)
- 100u