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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · GRAND MARTINGALE · 20U / 10-SHOE

Grand Martingale (2x+1) — 20-Unit Bankroll & 10-Shoe (720-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Grand Martingale (2x+1), eight-deck model M128-0 profiles 1202u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the bankroll-constrained footprint. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-10u Stop)
94.80%
Target Hit (+6u Cap)
17.09%
720-Hand Expected Hold
21.36u
Table Max (5-Step Depth)
100u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M128 (Grand Martingale (2x+1), 20u bankroll, 720 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
20u / 10 Shoes (720 Hands)

Matrix cell M128 tests Grand Martingale (2x+1) with a $100 base unit and -10u/+6u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
94.80%

Probability of hitting the -10u drawdown barrier before completing 720 hands or reaching +6u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
17.09%

Share of 720-hand trajectories reaching the +6u session ceiling, with 0.50% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
5 Steps (100u Cap)

A 100-unit house limit and 20-unit stack cap Grand Martingale escalation after 5 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
21.36u ($2136)

Derived from 1202u total action (1.67x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M128 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Grand Martingale 20u finite-shoe dispersion Across 720 Hands (M128)

Testing Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) at 20 units across 720 coups in cell M128-1 calibrates a 94.80% chance of striking the -10-unit stop-loss, while the 100-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 21.36u ($2136) in expected erosion.

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Grand Martingale (2x+1), bankroll-constrained model M128-2 dissects 1202u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the variance-scaled turnover.

M128 ParameterGrand Martingale (20u)10-Shoe dispersion
Grand Martingale Ladder1-3-7-15-31-63-127 (7 steps)Peak 127u multiplier on M128
20u Stack Window720 hands (10 shoes)Barriers -10u / +6u
100u Ceiling & Ruin94.80% ruin vs 17.09% winDepth 5 steps (64 cap hits)
1202u Handle & Hold21.36u ($2136)Multiplier 1.67x (finite-shoe drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

100u Ceiling Collisions & Grand Martingale Turnover (10 Shoes)

Testing Grand Martingale (1-3-7-15-31-63-127) at 20 units across 720 coups in cell M128-3 evaluates a 94.80% chance of striking the -10-unit stop-loss, while the 100-unit pit ceiling and 1.058% Banker edge impose 21.36u ($2136) in expected erosion.

When a 20-unit stack enters a 10-shoe (720-hand) session using Grand Martingale (2x+1), discrete-time model M128-4 audits 1202u in cumulative action and a 94.80% barrier-absorption probability before the 100-unit table maximum truncates the drawdown-weighted progression-curve.

  • Cell M128 rule: lock the -10u stop on your 20u Grand Martingale stack across 720 hands.
  • Matrix M128 verifies 21.36u ($2136) in house hold over 1202u of Grand Martingale action.
  • Scoreboard check M128: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (finite-shoe dispersion) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 20 units to a 10-shoe session lets Grand Martingale (2x+1) overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 720 hands, Grand Martingale generates 1202u in action, 21.36u in expected loss, and a 94.80% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Grand Martingale bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 720-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

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Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android