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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · REV FIBONACCI VS FLAT BETTING

Reverse Fibonacci Press vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (78-Hand Stress Test)

Under 5% Comm High-Tie (1.0579% effective edge), asymmetric stress run S187-0 over 78 hands and a 75-unit treasury charts a -24u drawdown (16.07% ruin) for Reverse Fibonacci Press against -13u (5.52% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 50-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Rev Fibonacci Ruin Rate
16.07%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
5.52%
Peak Trough (4-Run)
-24u
5% Comm High-Tie House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S187 (Rev Fibonacci vs Flat Betting, 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Rev Fibonacci vs Flat Betting (5% Comm High-Tie)

Stress cell S187 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 78 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
16.07% vs 5.52%

Probability of exhausting the 75-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
1.65u vs 0.86u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 78 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-24u vs -13u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 0.79u Drag

Reflects 16.67% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 0.79u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S187 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Rev Fibonacci vs. Flat Betting drawdown-weighted cadence (78 Hands · S187)

In finite-shoe comparative trial S187-1, running Rev Fibonacci against Flat Betting for 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 75 units inspects 1.65u vs 0.86u in expected toll and 16.07% vs 5.52% ruin under a 50-unit pit limit.

Under 5% Comm High-Tie (1.0579% effective edge), commission-adjusted stress run S187-2 over 78 hands and a 75-unit treasury documents a -24u drawdown (16.07% ruin) for Reverse Fibonacci Press against -13u (5.52% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 50-unit cap.

S187 cadenceRev FibonacciFlat Betting
Rev Fibonacci / Flat Betting Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-131-1-1-1 constant unit
78-Hand Ruin (75u)16.07%5.52%
5% Comm High-Tie Hold (1.0579%)1.65u0.86u
4-Run Trough (50u Cap)-24u-13u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm High-Tie Vigorish (0.79u) & 16.67% Tie Push Audit (S187)

In multi-coup comparative trial S187-3, running Rev Fibonacci against Flat Betting for 78 hands of 5% Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 75 units audits 1.65u vs 0.86u in expected toll and 16.07% vs 5.52% ruin under a 50-unit pit limit.

Under 5% Comm High-Tie (1.0579% effective edge), discrete-time stress run S187-4 over 78 hands and a 75-unit treasury profiles a -24u drawdown (16.07% ruin) for Reverse Fibonacci Press against -13u (5.52% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 50-unit cap.

  • Trial S187: set a 75u stop before running Rev Fibonacci vs Flat Betting over 78 hands.
  • Scenario S187 calibrates 0.79u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (16.67% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S187: derived road red marks drawdown-weighted column repetition and blue marks a structural break (cadence), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to Rev Fibonacci during 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 78 hands on a 75-unit stack, Rev Fibonacci carries 1.65u expected loss (16.07% ruin) vs 0.86u (5.52% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 4-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android