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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS FLAT BETTING
Martingale Doubling vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Four-Shoe 12-Run Volatility under No-Commission Banker 6 (288-Hand Stress Test)
During 288 deals of 4-Shoe Streak (streak) in audit S114-0, Martingale Doubling (1-2-4-8-16-32-64) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 26 tie pushes on a 180-unit roll with a 100-unit cap, calibrates 54.16% vs 9.17% ruin and 11.64u in commission drag. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- Martingale Ruin Rate
- 54.16%
- Flat Betting Ruin Rate
- 9.17%
- Peak Trough (12-Run)
- -74u
- 4-Shoe Streak House Edge
- 1.4579%