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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS FLAT BETTING
Martingale Doubling vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (74-Hand Stress Test)
When No-Comm Streak (streak) injects a 11-hand extreme run and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie density) over 74 coups, sequential audit S105-0 inspects Martingale Doubling at 4.83u expected erosion (28.40% ruin) compared with 1.12u (4.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 90 units. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- Martingale Ruin Rate
- 28.40%
- Flat Betting Ruin Rate
- 4.92%
- Peak Trough (11-Run)
- -72u
- No-Comm Streak House Edge
- 1.4579%