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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · MARTINGALE VS FLAT BETTING

Martingale Doubling vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (74-Hand Stress Test)

When No-Comm Streak (streak) injects a 11-hand extreme run and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie density) over 74 coups, sequential audit S105-0 inspects Martingale Doubling at 4.83u expected erosion (28.40% ruin) compared with 1.12u (4.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 90 units. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Martingale Ruin Rate
28.40%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
4.92%
Peak Trough (11-Run)
-72u
No-Comm Streak House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B P B P B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S105 (Martingale vs Flat Betting, 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Martingale vs Flat Betting (No-Comm Streak)

Stress cell S105 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 74 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
28.40% vs 4.92%

Probability of exhausting the 90-unit bankroll under a 65-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
4.83u vs 1.12u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 74 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-72u vs -24u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 11-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 2.99u Drag

Reflects 8.11% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 2.99u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S105 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Martingale vs. Flat Betting capital-bounded footprint (74 Hands · S105)

Benchmark S105-1 documents the bankroll-constrained survival-window between Martingale and Flat Betting over 74 hands of No-Comm Streak: with 90 units, a 65-unit cap, and 1.4579% house edge, ruin settles at 28.40% vs 4.92% while table-capped drawdown-slope reaches -72u.

When No-Comm Streak (streak) injects a 11-hand extreme run and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie density) over 74 coups, stochastic audit S105-2 audits Martingale Doubling at 4.83u expected erosion (28.40% ruin) compared with 1.12u (4.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 90 units.

S105 footprintMartingaleFlat Betting
Martingale / Flat Betting Rule1-2-4-8-16-32-641-1-1-1 constant unit
74-Hand Ruin (90u)28.40%4.92%
No-Comm Streak Hold (1.4579%)4.83u1.12u
11-Run Trough (65u Cap)-72u-24u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm Streak Vigorish (2.99u) & 8.11% Tie Push Audit (S105)

Benchmark S105-3 profiles the absorbing-barrier progression-curve between Martingale and Flat Betting over 74 hands of No-Comm Streak: with 90 units, a 65-unit cap, and 1.4579% house edge, ruin settles at 28.40% vs 4.92% while stochastic footprint reaches -72u.

When No-Comm Streak (streak) injects a 11-hand extreme run and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie density) over 74 coups, house-edge-anchored audit S105-4 verifies Martingale Doubling at 4.83u expected erosion (28.40% ruin) compared with 1.12u (4.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 90 units.

  • Trial S105: set a 90u stop before running Martingale vs Flat Betting over 74 hands.
  • Scenario S105 verifies 2.99u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S105: derived road red marks capital-bounded column repetition and blue marks a structural break (footprint), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to Martingale during 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 74 hands on a 90-unit stack, Martingale carries 4.83u expected loss (28.40% ruin) vs 1.12u (4.92% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 11-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
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