Under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% effective edge), finite-shoe stress run S106-0 over 80 hands and a 85-unit treasury maps a -42u drawdown (25.67% ruin) for Martingale Doubling against -13u (5.73% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 60-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S106 (Martingale vs Flat Betting, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S106 compares 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 80 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 3.24u in vigorish friction.
In commission-adjusted comparative trial S106-1, running Martingale against Flat Betting for 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 85 units evaluates 5.22u vs 1.21u in expected toll and 25.67% vs 5.73% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.
Under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% effective edge), multi-coup stress run S106-2 over 80 hands and a 85-unit treasury charts a -42u drawdown (25.67% ruin) for Martingale Doubling against -13u (5.73% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 60-unit cap.
| S106 boundary | Martingale | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Martingale / Flat Betting Rule | 1-2-4-8-16-32-64 | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 80-Hand Ruin (85u) | 25.67% | 5.73% |
| No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%) | 5.22u | 1.21u |
| 5-Run Trough (60u Cap) | -42u | -13u |
In discrete-time comparative trial S106-3, running Martingale against Flat Betting for 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) on 85 units inspects 5.22u vs 1.21u in expected toll and 25.67% vs 5.73% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.
Under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% effective edge), drawdown-weighted stress run S106-4 over 80 hands and a 85-unit treasury documents a -42u drawdown (25.67% ruin) for Martingale Doubling against -13u (5.73% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 60-unit cap.
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About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
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