Under 4-Shoe Chop (1.0579% effective edge), variance-scaled stress run S309-0 over 288 hands and a 160-unit treasury benchmarks a -23u drawdown (19.35% ruin) for Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet against -13u (9.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 100-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S309 (Macau 3-Step vs Flat Betting, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S309 compares 1-3-7 cap against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 288 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.
Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 2.77u in vigorish friction.
In combinatorial comparative trial S309-1, running Macau 3-Step against Flat Betting for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) on 160 units tracks 5.77u vs 3.17u in expected toll and 19.35% vs 9.92% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit.
Under 4-Shoe Chop (1.0579% effective edge), session-bounded stress run S309-2 over 288 hands and a 160-unit treasury calibrates a -23u drawdown (19.35% ruin) for Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet against -13u (9.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 100-unit cap.
| S309 absorption-curve | Macau 3-Step | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Macau 3-Step / Flat Betting Rule | 1-3-7 cap | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 288-Hand Ruin (160u) | 19.35% | 9.92% |
| 4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%) | 5.77u | 3.17u |
| 3-Run Trough (100u Cap) | -23u | -13u |
In asymmetric comparative trial S309-3, running Macau 3-Step against Flat Betting for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) on 160 units tabulates 5.77u vs 3.17u in expected toll and 19.35% vs 9.92% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit.
Under 4-Shoe Chop (1.0579% effective edge), finite-shoe stress run S309-4 over 288 hands and a 160-unit treasury models a -23u drawdown (19.35% ruin) for Macau 3-Step VIP Bullet against -13u (9.92% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 100-unit cap.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
Visual step-by-step breakdowns with closed captions, chapter markers, and full searchable transcripts.
Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
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Verify 8-deck combinatorial probabilities, Banker/Player house edge, and commission rules.
Inspect Big Road, Bead Plate, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks interactively.
Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.