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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · LABOUCHERE VS FLAT BETTING

Labouchere Split-Line vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission (288-Hand Stress Test)

Matchup S239-0 tabulates how a 160-unit roll and 100-unit pit maximum govern Labouchere versus Flat Betting during 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop: variance-scaled excursion divergence pushes primary ruin to 28.87% against 9.92% for the benchmark while tabulates 4.63u in commission friction. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Labouchere Ruin Rate
28.87%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
9.92%
Peak Trough (3-Run)
-23u
4-Shoe Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S239 (Labouchere vs Flat Betting, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Labouchere vs Flat Betting (4-Shoe Chop)

Stress cell S239 compares [1-2-3-2-1] outside sum against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 288 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
28.87% vs 9.92%

Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
9.64u vs 3.17u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-23u vs -13u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
27 Ties · 4.63u Drag

Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 4.63u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S239 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Labouchere vs. Flat Betting absorbing-barrier threshold (288 Hands · S239)

During 288 deals of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) in audit S239-1, Labouchere Split-Line ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 27 tie pushes on a 160-unit roll with a 100-unit cap, models 28.87% vs 9.92% ruin and 4.63u in commission drag.

Matchup S239-2 measures how a 160-unit roll and 100-unit pit maximum govern Labouchere versus Flat Betting during 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop: session-bounded turnover divergence pushes primary ruin to 28.87% against 9.92% for the benchmark while charts 4.63u in commission friction.

S239 thresholdLabouchereFlat Betting
Labouchere / Flat Betting Rule[1-2-3-2-1] outside sum1-1-1-1 constant unit
288-Hand Ruin (160u)28.87%9.92%
4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%)9.64u3.17u
3-Run Trough (100u Cap)-23u-13u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

4-Shoe Chop Vigorish (4.63u) & 9.38% Tie Push Audit (S239)

During 288 deals of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) in audit S239-3, Labouchere Split-Line ([1-2-3-2-1] outside sum) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 27 tie pushes on a 160-unit roll with a 100-unit cap, dissects 28.87% vs 9.92% ruin and 4.63u in commission drag.

Matchup S239-4 quantifies how a 160-unit roll and 100-unit pit maximum govern Labouchere versus Flat Betting during 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop: finite-shoe decay-rate divergence pushes primary ruin to 28.87% against 9.92% for the benchmark while calibrates 4.63u in commission friction.

  • Trial S239: set a 160u stop before running Labouchere vs Flat Betting over 288 hands.
  • Scenario S239 maps 4.63u in commission drag and 27 tie pushes (9.38% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S239: derived road red marks absorbing-barrier column repetition and blue marks a structural break (threshold), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to Labouchere during Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 288 hands on a 160-unit stack, Labouchere carries 9.64u expected loss (28.87% ruin) vs 3.17u (9.92% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 3-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android