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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS FLAT BETTING

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (80-Hand Stress Test)

Pairing a 85-unit bankroll against 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% edge) in cell S288-0 computes HK 6-Step at 24.72% ruin and -36u peak turnover, whereas Flat Betting records 5.73% ruin and -15u below the 60-unit ceiling. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
24.72%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
5.73%
Peak Trough (5-Run)
-36u
No-Comm High-Tie House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S288 (HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting (No-Comm High-Tie)

Stress cell S288 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 80 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
24.72% vs 5.73%

Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
5.06u vs 1.21u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-36u vs -15u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
15 Ties · 3.14u Drag

Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 3.14u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S288 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Flat Betting variance-scaled escalation (80 Hands · S288)

Across 80 resolved and tied deals under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% edge), commission-adjusted comparison S288-1 maps Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise against Flat 1-Unit Baseline on a 85-unit bankroll, showing that 5-hand clusters and a 60-unit ceiling drive 24.72% vs 5.73% stop-loss breaches along the commission-adjusted drawdown-slope.

Pairing a 85-unit bankroll against 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% edge) in cell S288-2 evaluates HK 6-Step at 24.72% ruin and -36u peak decay-rate, whereas Flat Betting records 5.73% ruin and -15u below the 60-unit ceiling.

S288 escalationHK 6-StepFlat Betting
HK 6-Step / Flat Betting Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-1-1-1 constant unit
80-Hand Ruin (85u)24.72%5.73%
No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%)5.06u1.21u
5-Run Trough (60u Cap)-36u-15u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm High-Tie Vigorish (3.14u) & 18.75% Tie Push Audit (S288)

Across 80 resolved and tied deals under No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% edge), discrete-time comparison S288-3 charts Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise against Flat 1-Unit Baseline on a 85-unit bankroll, showing that 5-hand clusters and a 60-unit ceiling drive 24.72% vs 5.73% stop-loss breaches along the combinatorial footprint.

Pairing a 85-unit bankroll against 80 hands of No-Comm High-Tie (1.4579% edge) in cell S288-4 inspects HK 6-Step at 24.72% ruin and -36u peak threshold, whereas Flat Betting records 5.73% ruin and -15u below the 60-unit ceiling.

  • Trial S288: set a 85u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting over 80 hands.
  • Scenario S288 charts 3.14u in commission drag and 15 tie pushes (18.75% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S288: derived road red marks variance-scaled column repetition and blue marks a structural break (escalation), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to HK 6-Step during 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 80 hands on a 85-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 5.06u expected loss (24.72% ruin) vs 1.21u (5.73% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 5-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android