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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · HK 6-STEP VS FLAT BETTING

Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Ping-Pong Chop Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (70-Hand Stress Test)

Matchup S286-0 audits how a 65-unit roll and 50-unit pit maximum govern HK 6-Step versus Flat Betting during 70 hands of No-Comm Chop: table-capped trajectory divergence pushes primary ruin to 22.22% against 5.93% for the benchmark while models 2.75u in commission friction. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

HK 6-Step Ruin Rate
22.22%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
5.93%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-26u
No-Comm Chop House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S286 (HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting, Ping-Pong Chop Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting (No-Comm Chop)

Stress cell S286 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 70 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
22.22% vs 5.93%

Probability of exhausting the 65-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
4.43u vs 1.06u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 70 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-26u vs -9u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
7 Ties · 2.75u Drag

Reflects 9.55% tie frequency (7 pushes) and 2.75u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S286 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

HK 6-Step vs. Flat Betting non-stationary volatility-band (70 Hands · S286)

During 70 deals of No-Comm Chop (chop) in audit S286-1, Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 7 tie pushes on a 65-unit roll with a 50-unit cap, profiles 22.22% vs 5.93% ruin and 2.75u in commission drag.

Matchup S286-2 verifies how a 65-unit roll and 50-unit pit maximum govern HK 6-Step versus Flat Betting during 70 hands of No-Comm Chop: non-stationary cycle-span divergence pushes primary ruin to 22.22% against 5.93% for the benchmark while inspects 2.75u in commission friction.

S286 volatility-bandHK 6-StepFlat Betting
HK 6-Step / Flat Betting Rule1-3-7-15-31-631-1-1-1 constant unit
70-Hand Ruin (65u)22.22%5.93%
No-Comm Chop Hold (1.4579%)4.43u1.06u
2-Run Trough (50u Cap)-26u-9u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm Chop Vigorish (2.75u) & 9.55% Tie Push Audit (S286)

During 70 deals of No-Comm Chop (chop) in audit S286-3, Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise (1-3-7-15-31-63) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 7 tie pushes on a 65-unit roll with a 50-unit cap, benchmarks 22.22% vs 5.93% ruin and 2.75u in commission drag.

Matchup S286-4 tracks how a 65-unit roll and 50-unit pit maximum govern HK 6-Step versus Flat Betting during 70 hands of No-Comm Chop: combinatorial capital-runway divergence pushes primary ruin to 22.22% against 5.93% for the benchmark while tabulates 2.75u in commission friction.

  • Trial S286: set a 65u stop before running HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting over 70 hands.
  • Scenario S286 evaluates 2.75u in commission drag and 7 tie pushes (9.55% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S286: derived road red marks non-stationary column repetition and blue marks a structural break (volatility-band), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to HK 6-Step during Ping-Pong Chop Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 70 hands on a 65-unit stack, HK 6-Step carries 4.43u expected loss (22.22% ruin) vs 1.06u (5.93% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android