In head-to-head trial S289-0 across 144 deals (EZ Dragon Chop, 1.0284% edge), HK 6-Step records a -28u peak drawdown-slope and 30.09% ruin probability on a 100-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -13u trough and 8.39% ruin under the 75-unit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S289 (HK 6-Step vs Flat Betting, Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S289 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 144 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 100-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 144 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.
Reflects 9.72% tie frequency (14 pushes) and 3.08u in vigorish friction.
Within non-stationary testbed S289-1, a 100-unit bankroll facing 144 coups of EZ Dragon Chop (chop) and a 75-unit maximum wager dissects 30.09% ruin (6.42u expected loss) on Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus 8.39% ruin (1.54u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
In head-to-head trial S289-2 across 144 deals (EZ Dragon Chop, 1.0284% edge), HK 6-Step records a -28u peak volatility-band and 30.09% ruin probability on a 100-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -13u trough and 8.39% ruin under the 75-unit limit.
| S289 distribution | HK 6-Step | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| HK 6-Step / Flat Betting Rule | 1-3-7-15-31-63 | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 144-Hand Ruin (100u) | 30.09% | 8.39% |
| EZ Dragon Chop Hold (1.0284%) | 6.42u | 1.54u |
| 3-Run Trough (75u Cap) | -28u | -13u |
Within combinatorial testbed S289-3, a 100-unit bankroll facing 144 coups of EZ Dragon Chop (chop) and a 75-unit maximum wager computes 30.09% ruin (6.42u expected loss) on Hong Kong 6-Step Cruise versus 8.39% ruin (1.54u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
In head-to-head trial S289-4 across 144 deals (EZ Dragon Chop, 1.0284% edge), HK 6-Step records a -28u peak survival-window and 30.09% ruin probability on a 100-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -13u trough and 8.39% ruin under the 75-unit limit.
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