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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS FLAT BETTING
Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — 11-Hand Banker Run under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (74-Hand Stress Test)
Pairing a 90-unit bankroll against 74 hands of No-Comm Streak (1.4579% edge) in cell S119-0 computes Grand Martingale at 33.29% ruin and -81u peak capital-runway, whereas Flat Betting records 4.92% ruin and -23u below the 65-unit ceiling. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
- 33.29%
- Flat Betting Ruin Rate
- 4.92%
- Peak Trough (11-Run)
- -81u
- No-Comm Streak House Edge
- 1.4579%