In head-to-head trial S120-0 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Grand Martingale records a -44u peak boundary and 29.90% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -17u trough and 5.73% ruin under the 60-unit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S120 (Grand Martingale vs Flat Betting, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S120 compares 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 80 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 4.67u in vigorish friction.
Within commission-adjusted testbed S120-1, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager dissects 29.90% ruin (7.54u expected loss) on Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 5.73% ruin (1.21u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
In head-to-head trial S120-2 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Grand Martingale records a -44u peak dispersion and 29.90% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -17u trough and 5.73% ruin under the 60-unit limit.
| S120 exposure | Grand Martingale | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Martingale / Flat Betting Rule | 1-3-7-15-31-63-127 | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 80-Hand Ruin (85u) | 29.90% | 5.73% |
| No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%) | 7.54u | 1.21u |
| 5-Run Trough (60u Cap) | -44u | -17u |
Within discrete-time testbed S120-3, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager computes 29.90% ruin (7.54u expected loss) on Grand Martingale (2x+1) versus 5.73% ruin (1.21u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
In head-to-head trial S120-4 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Grand Martingale records a -44u peak distribution and 29.90% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -17u trough and 5.73% ruin under the 60-unit limit.
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