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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · GRAND MARTINGALE VS FLAT BETTING
Grand Martingale (2x+1) vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers (140-Hand Stress Test)
Matchup S124-0 evaluates how a 95-unit roll and 70-unit pit maximum govern Grand Martingale versus Flat Betting during 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop: non-stationary profile divergence pushes primary ruin to 38.54% against 7.64% for the benchmark while verifies 5.37u in commission friction. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- Grand Martingale Ruin Rate
- 38.54%
- Flat Betting Ruin Rate
- 7.64%
- Peak Trough (2-Run)
- -29u
- Player 1:1 Chop House Edge
- 1.2351%