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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS FLAT BETTING

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Four-Shoe 12-Run Volatility under No-Commission Banker 6 (288-Hand Stress Test)

In absorbing-barrier comparative trial S184-0, running Fibonacci against Flat Betting for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Streak (streak) on 180 units verifies 12.13u vs 4.37u in expected toll and 22.99% vs 9.17% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
22.99%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
9.17%
Peak Trough (12-Run)
-60u
4-Shoe Streak House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B P B P B B P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ = = =
Small Road ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S184 (Fibonacci vs Flat Betting, Four-Shoe 12-Run Volatility under No-Commission Banker 6). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs Flat Betting (4-Shoe Streak)

Stress cell S184 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 288 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
22.99% vs 9.17%

Probability of exhausting the 180-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
12.13u vs 4.37u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 288 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-60u vs -24u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 12-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
26 Ties · 7.52u Drag

Reflects 9.03% tie frequency (26 pushes) and 7.52u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S184 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. Flat Betting finite-shoe absorption-curve (288 Hands · S184)

Under 4-Shoe Streak (1.4579% effective edge), house-edge-anchored stress run S184-1 over 288 hands and a 180-unit treasury benchmarks a -60u drawdown (22.99% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence against -24u (9.17% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 100-unit cap.

In eight-deck comparative trial S184-2, running Fibonacci against Flat Betting for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Streak (streak) on 180 units tracks 12.13u vs 4.37u in expected toll and 22.99% vs 9.17% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit.

S184 absorption-curveFibonacciFlat Betting
Fibonacci / Flat Betting Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-341-1-1-1 constant unit
288-Hand Ruin (180u)22.99%9.17%
4-Shoe Streak Hold (1.4579%)12.13u4.37u
12-Run Trough (100u Cap)-60u-24u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

4-Shoe Streak Vigorish (7.52u) & 9.03% Tie Push Audit (S184)

Under 4-Shoe Streak (1.4579% effective edge), table-capped stress run S184-3 over 288 hands and a 180-unit treasury calibrates a -60u drawdown (22.99% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence against -24u (9.17% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 100-unit cap.

In step-indexed comparative trial S184-4, running Fibonacci against Flat Betting for 288 hands of 4-Shoe Streak (streak) on 180 units tabulates 12.13u vs 4.37u in expected toll and 22.99% vs 9.17% ruin under a 100-unit pit limit.

  • Trial S184: set a 180u stop before running Fibonacci vs Flat Betting over 288 hands.
  • Scenario S184 models 7.52u in commission drag and 26 tie pushes (9.03% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S184: derived road red marks finite-shoe column repetition and blue marks a structural break (absorption-curve), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to Fibonacci during Four-Shoe 12-Run Volatility under No-Commission Banker 6 neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 288 hands on a 180-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 12.13u expected loss (22.99% ruin) vs 4.37u (9.17% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 12-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android