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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT VS FLAT BETTING

Contra D'Alembert Press vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (148-Hand Stress Test)

When EZ Dragon Streak (streak) injects a 10-hand extreme run and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie density) over 148 coups, bankroll-constrained audit S220-0 measures Contra D'Alembert Press at 2.65u expected erosion (12.38% ruin) compared with 1.58u (6.01% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 120 units. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Contra D'Alembert Ruin Rate
12.38%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
6.01%
Peak Trough (10-Run)
-41u
EZ Dragon Streak House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S220 (Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting, Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting (EZ Dragon Streak)

Stress cell S220 compares +1 on win / -1 on loss against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 148 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
12.38% vs 6.01%

Probability of exhausting the 120-unit bankroll under a 80-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.65u vs 1.58u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 148 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-41u vs -23u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 10-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 1.27u Drag

Reflects 8.78% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 1.27u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S220 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Contra D'Alembert vs. Flat Betting combinatorial threshold (148 Hands · S220)

Benchmark S220-1 dissects the stochastic envelope between Contra D'Alembert and Flat Betting over 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak: with 120 units, a 80-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 12.38% vs 6.01% while session-bounded drawdown-slope reaches -41u.

When EZ Dragon Streak (streak) injects a 10-hand extreme run and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie density) over 148 coups, absorbing-barrier audit S220-2 quantifies Contra D'Alembert Press at 2.65u expected erosion (12.38% ruin) compared with 1.58u (6.01% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 120 units.

S220 thresholdContra D'AlembertFlat Betting
Contra D'Alembert / Flat Betting Rule+1 on win / -1 on loss1-1-1-1 constant unit
148-Hand Ruin (120u)12.38%6.01%
EZ Dragon Streak Hold (1.0284%)2.65u1.58u
10-Run Trough (80u Cap)-41u-23u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ Dragon Streak Vigorish (1.27u) & 8.78% Tie Push Audit (S220)

Benchmark S220-3 computes the house-edge-anchored trajectory between Contra D'Alembert and Flat Betting over 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak: with 120 units, a 80-unit cap, and 1.0284% house edge, ruin settles at 12.38% vs 6.01% while step-indexed footprint reaches -41u.

When EZ Dragon Streak (streak) injects a 10-hand extreme run and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie density) over 148 coups, eight-deck audit S220-4 maps Contra D'Alembert Press at 2.65u expected erosion (12.38% ruin) compared with 1.58u (6.01% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline on 120 units.

  • Trial S220: set a 120u stop before running Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting over 148 hands.
  • Scenario S220 tabulates 1.27u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S220: derived road red marks combinatorial column repetition and blue marks a structural break (threshold), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to Contra D'Alembert during Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 148 hands on a 120-unit stack, Contra D'Alembert carries 2.65u expected loss (12.38% ruin) vs 1.58u (6.01% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 10-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android