Under 5% Comm Streak (1.0579% effective edge), capital-bounded stress run S214-0 over 75 hands and a 80-unit treasury dissects a -39u drawdown (10.42% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert Press against -20u (4.80% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 60-unit cap. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S214 (Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting, 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S214 compares +1 on win / -1 on loss against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 75 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 80-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 75 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 9-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.
Reflects 8.4% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 0.66u in vigorish friction.
In sequential comparative trial S214-1, running Contra D'Alembert against Flat Betting for 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak (streak) on 80 units quantifies 1.38u vs 0.83u in expected toll and 10.42% vs 4.80% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.
Under 5% Comm Streak (1.0579% effective edge), bankroll-constrained stress run S214-2 over 75 hands and a 80-unit treasury computes a -39u drawdown (10.42% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert Press against -20u (4.80% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 60-unit cap.
| S214 volatility-band | Contra D'Alembert | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Contra D'Alembert / Flat Betting Rule | +1 on win / -1 on loss | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 75-Hand Ruin (80u) | 10.42% | 4.80% |
| 5% Comm Streak Hold (1.0579%) | 1.38u | 0.83u |
| 9-Run Trough (60u Cap) | -39u | -20u |
In stochastic comparative trial S214-3, running Contra D'Alembert against Flat Betting for 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak (streak) on 80 units maps 1.38u vs 0.83u in expected toll and 10.42% vs 4.80% ruin under a 60-unit pit limit.
Under 5% Comm Streak (1.0579% effective edge), absorbing-barrier stress run S214-4 over 75 hands and a 80-unit treasury evaluates a -39u drawdown (10.42% ruin) for Contra D'Alembert Press against -20u (4.80% ruin) for Flat 1-Unit Baseline inside a 60-unit cap.
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About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
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Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
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Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.
Practical bankroll boundaries, stop-loss discipline, and 18+/21+ support resources.