Within finite-shoe testbed S218-0, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager charts 11.77% ruin (2.03u expected loss) on Contra D'Alembert Press versus 5.73% ruin (1.21u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S218 (Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Stress cell S218 compares +1 on win / -1 on loss against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 80 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 1.26u in vigorish friction.
In head-to-head trial S218-1 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Contra D'Alembert records a -27u peak turnover and 11.77% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -15u trough and 5.73% ruin under the 60-unit limit.
Within multi-coup testbed S218-2, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager documents 11.77% ruin (2.03u expected loss) on Contra D'Alembert Press versus 5.73% ruin (1.21u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
| S218 absorption-curve | Contra D'Alembert | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Contra D'Alembert / Flat Betting Rule | +1 on win / -1 on loss | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 80-Hand Ruin (85u) | 11.77% | 5.73% |
| No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%) | 2.03u | 1.21u |
| 5-Run Trough (60u Cap) | -27u | -15u |
In head-to-head trial S218-3 across 80 deals (No-Comm High-Tie, 1.4579% edge), Contra D'Alembert records a -27u peak decay-rate and 11.77% ruin probability on a 85-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -15u trough and 5.73% ruin under the 60-unit limit.
Within drawdown-weighted testbed S218-4, a 85-unit bankroll facing 80 coups of No-Comm High-Tie (high-tie) and a 60-unit maximum wager profiles 11.77% ruin (2.03u expected loss) on Contra D'Alembert Press versus 5.73% ruin (1.21u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
Visual step-by-step breakdowns with closed captions, chapter markers, and full searchable transcripts.
Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
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Practical bankroll boundaries, stop-loss discipline, and 18+/21+ support resources.
Verify 8-deck combinatorial probabilities, Banker/Player house edge, and commission rules.
Inspect Big Road, Bead Plate, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks interactively.
Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.