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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · CONTRA D'ALEMBERT VS FLAT BETTING

Contra D'Alembert Press vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers (140-Hand Stress Test)

During 140 deals of Player 1:1 Chop (chop) in audit S222-0, Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 13 tie pushes on a 95-unit roll with a 70-unit cap, verifies 15.90% vs 7.64% ruin and 1.45u in commission drag. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Contra D'Alembert Ruin Rate
15.90%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
7.64%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-17u
Player 1:1 Chop House Edge
1.2351%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = = = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S222 (Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting, Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting (Player 1:1 Chop)

Stress cell S222 compares +1 on win / -1 on loss against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 140 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
15.90% vs 7.64%

Probability of exhausting the 95-unit bankroll under a 70-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
3.02u vs 1.80u

Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 140 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-17u vs -10u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 1.45u Drag

Reflects 9.29% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 1.45u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S222 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Contra D'Alembert vs. Flat Betting session-bounded trajectory (140 Hands · S222)

Matchup S222-1 benchmarks how a 95-unit roll and 70-unit pit maximum govern Contra D'Alembert versus Flat Betting during 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop: variance-scaled excursion divergence pushes primary ruin to 15.90% against 7.64% for the benchmark while calibrates 1.45u in commission friction.

During 140 deals of Player 1:1 Chop (chop) in audit S222-2, Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 13 tie pushes on a 95-unit roll with a 70-unit cap, tracks 15.90% vs 7.64% ruin and 1.45u in commission drag.

S222 trajectoryContra D'AlembertFlat Betting
Contra D'Alembert / Flat Betting Rule+1 on win / -1 on loss1-1-1-1 constant unit
140-Hand Ruin (95u)15.90%7.64%
Player 1:1 Chop Hold (1.2351%)3.02u1.80u
2-Run Trough (70u Cap)-17u-10u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

Player 1:1 Chop Vigorish (1.45u) & 9.29% Tie Push Audit (S222)

Matchup S222-3 calibrates how a 95-unit roll and 70-unit pit maximum govern Contra D'Alembert versus Flat Betting during 140 hands of Player 1:1 Chop: session-bounded turnover divergence pushes primary ruin to 15.90% against 7.64% for the benchmark while evaluates 1.45u in commission friction.

During 140 deals of Player 1:1 Chop (chop) in audit S222-4, Contra D'Alembert Press (+1 on win / -1 on loss) and Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) navigate 13 tie pushes on a 95-unit roll with a 70-unit cap, tabulates 15.90% vs 7.64% ruin and 1.45u in commission drag.

  • Trial S222: set a 95u stop before running Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting over 140 hands.
  • Scenario S222 models 1.45u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (9.29% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S222: derived road red marks session-bounded column repetition and blue marks a structural break (trajectory), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to Contra D'Alembert during Two-Shoe Strict Alternation on Even-Money Player Wagers neutralizes the 1.2351% house edge.
TruthOver 140 hands on a 95-unit stack, Contra D'Alembert carries 3.02u expected loss (15.90% ruin) vs 1.80u (7.64% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android