Within variance-scaled testbed S225-0, a 160-unit bankroll facing 288 coups of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) and a 100-unit maximum wager quantifies 20.03% ruin (5.31u expected loss) on Contra D'Alembert Press versus 9.92% ruin (3.17u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S225 (Contra D'Alembert vs Flat Betting, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S225 compares +1 on win / -1 on loss against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 288 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.
Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 2.55u in vigorish friction.
In head-to-head trial S225-1 across 288 deals (4-Shoe Chop, 1.0579% edge), Contra D'Alembert records a -23u peak cadence and 20.03% ruin probability on a 160-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -14u trough and 9.92% ruin under the 100-unit limit.
Within session-bounded testbed S225-2, a 160-unit bankroll facing 288 coups of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) and a 100-unit maximum wager maps 20.03% ruin (5.31u expected loss) on Contra D'Alembert Press versus 9.92% ruin (3.17u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
| S225 cadence | Contra D'Alembert | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| Contra D'Alembert / Flat Betting Rule | +1 on win / -1 on loss | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 288-Hand Ruin (160u) | 20.03% | 9.92% |
| 4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%) | 5.31u | 3.17u |
| 3-Run Trough (100u Cap) | -23u | -14u |
In head-to-head trial S225-3 across 288 deals (4-Shoe Chop, 1.0579% edge), Contra D'Alembert records a -23u peak escalation and 20.03% ruin probability on a 160-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -14u trough and 9.92% ruin under the 100-unit limit.
Within finite-shoe testbed S225-4, a 160-unit bankroll facing 288 coups of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) and a 100-unit maximum wager charts 20.03% ruin (5.31u expected loss) on Contra D'Alembert Press versus 9.92% ruin (3.17u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
Visual step-by-step breakdowns with closed captions, chapter markers, and full searchable transcripts.
Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
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Verify 8-deck combinatorial probabilities, Banker/Player house edge, and commission rules.
Inspect Big Road, Bead Plate, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks interactively.
Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.