Within stochastic testbed S279-0, a 140-unit bankroll facing 216 coups of Player 1:1 Streak (streak) and a 90-unit maximum wager audits 15.92% ruin (4.34u expected loss) on 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression versus 8.20% ruin (2.77u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S279 (2-1-2 Manhattan vs Flat Betting, Three-Shoe Adverse 8-Run on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S279 compares 2-1-2-3-4-5 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 216 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 140-unit bankroll under a 90-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 216 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 8-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.
Reflects 9.26% tie frequency (20 pushes) and 2.08u in vigorish friction.
In head-to-head trial S279-1 across 216 deals (Player 1:1 Streak, 1.2351% edge), 2-1-2 Manhattan records a -34u peak ledger and 15.92% ruin probability on a 140-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -19u trough and 8.20% ruin under the 90-unit limit.
Within house-edge-anchored testbed S279-2, a 140-unit bankroll facing 216 coups of Player 1:1 Streak (streak) and a 90-unit maximum wager verifies 15.92% ruin (4.34u expected loss) on 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression versus 8.20% ruin (2.77u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
| S279 dispersion | 2-1-2 Manhattan | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1-2 Manhattan / Flat Betting Rule | 2-1-2-3-4-5 | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 216-Hand Ruin (140u) | 15.92% | 8.20% |
| Player 1:1 Streak Hold (1.2351%) | 4.34u | 2.77u |
| 8-Run Trough (90u Cap) | -34u | -19u |
In head-to-head trial S279-3 across 216 deals (Player 1:1 Streak, 1.2351% edge), 2-1-2 Manhattan records a -34u peak excursion and 15.92% ruin probability on a 140-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -19u trough and 8.20% ruin under the 90-unit limit.
Within table-capped testbed S279-4, a 140-unit bankroll facing 216 coups of Player 1:1 Streak (streak) and a 90-unit maximum wager tracks 15.92% ruin (4.34u expected loss) on 2-1-2 Manhattan Progression versus 8.20% ruin (2.77u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
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Verify 8-deck combinatorial probabilities, Banker/Player house edge, and commission rules.
Inspect Big Road, Bead Plate, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig marks interactively.
Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).
Definitions for progression ladders, absorbing barriers, commission formats, and shoe terms.
Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.