In head-to-head trial S154-0 across 210 deals (Player High-Tie, 1.2351% edge), 1-3-2-6 records a -26u peak dispersion and 21.86% ruin probability on a 130-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -15u trough and 8.79% ruin under the 85-unit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S154 (1-3-2-6 vs Flat Betting, Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.
Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Stress cell S154 compares 1-3-2-6 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 210 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 130-unit bankroll under a 85-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 210 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.
Reflects 15.24% tie frequency (32 pushes) and 2.06u in vigorish friction.
Within discrete-time testbed S154-1, a 130-unit bankroll facing 210 coups of Player High-Tie (high-tie) and a 85-unit maximum wager audits 21.86% ruin (4.30u expected loss) on 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence versus 8.79% ruin (2.70u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
In head-to-head trial S154-2 across 210 deals (Player High-Tie, 1.2351% edge), 1-3-2-6 records a -26u peak distribution and 21.86% ruin probability on a 130-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -15u trough and 8.79% ruin under the 85-unit limit.
| S154 dispersion | 1-3-2-6 | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3-2-6 / Flat Betting Rule | 1-3-2-6 | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 210-Hand Ruin (130u) | 21.86% | 8.79% |
| Player High-Tie Hold (1.2351%) | 4.30u | 2.70u |
| 4-Run Trough (85u Cap) | -26u | -15u |
Within capital-bounded testbed S154-3, a 130-unit bankroll facing 210 coups of Player High-Tie (high-tie) and a 85-unit maximum wager verifies 21.86% ruin (4.30u expected loss) on 1-3-2-6 Four-Stage Sequence versus 8.79% ruin (2.70u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
In head-to-head trial S154-4 across 210 deals (Player High-Tie, 1.2351% edge), 1-3-2-6 records a -26u peak envelope and 21.86% ruin probability on a 130-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -15u trough and 8.79% ruin under the 85-unit limit.
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