Skip to main content
Baccarat Smart
  1. Home
  2. Combinatorial Math & Odds Hub
  3. 1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting (No-Comm High-Tie)
STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · 1-2-3-5 VS FLAT BETTING

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (80-Hand Stress Test)

Stress test S162-0 evaluates 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) against Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) inside a 85-unit bankroll over 80 hands (No-Comm High-Tie, high-tie), where a 60-unit table ceiling produces 12.87% vs 5.73% ruin rates and verifies 1.13u in finite-shoe vigorish drag. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

1-2-3-5 Ruin Rate
12.87%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
5.73%
Peak Trough (5-Run)
-24u
No-Comm High-Tie House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S162 (1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting, 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting (No-Comm High-Tie)

Stress cell S162 compares 1-2-3-5 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 80 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
12.87% vs 5.73%

Probability of exhausting the 85-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
1.83u vs 1.21u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 80 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-24u vs -14u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
15 Ties · 1.13u Drag

Reflects 18.75% tie frequency (15 pushes) and 1.13u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S162 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

1-2-3-5 vs. Flat Betting variance-scaled turnover (80 Hands · S162)

Evaluating 1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting in scenario S162-1 (80 hands, 85u stack, 60u table limit) charts how 15 tie stalls (18.75%) and a 5-coup run shape commission-adjusted volatility-band, yielding 12.87% vs 5.73% ruin.

Stress test S162-2 inspects 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) against Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) inside a 85-unit bankroll over 80 hands (No-Comm High-Tie, high-tie), where a 60-unit table ceiling produces 12.87% vs 5.73% ruin rates and quantifies 1.13u in multi-coup vigorish drag.

S162 turnover1-2-3-5Flat Betting
1-2-3-5 / Flat Betting Rule1-2-3-51-1-1-1 constant unit
80-Hand Ruin (85u)12.87%5.73%
No-Comm High-Tie Hold (1.4579%)1.83u1.21u
5-Run Trough (60u Cap)-24u-14u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm High-Tie Vigorish (1.13u) & 18.75% Tie Push Audit (S162)

Evaluating 1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting in scenario S162-3 (80 hands, 85u stack, 60u table limit) documents how 15 tie stalls (18.75%) and a 5-coup run shape discrete-time survival-window, yielding 12.87% vs 5.73% ruin.

Stress test S162-4 audits 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder (1-2-3-5) against Flat 1-Unit Baseline (1-1-1-1 constant unit) inside a 85-unit bankroll over 80 hands (No-Comm High-Tie, high-tie), where a 60-unit table ceiling produces 12.87% vs 5.73% ruin rates and profiles 1.13u in drawdown-weighted vigorish drag.

  • Trial S162: set a 85u stop before running 1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting over 80 hands.
  • Scenario S162 measures 1.13u in commission drag and 15 tie pushes (18.75% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S162: derived road red marks variance-scaled column repetition and blue marks a structural break (turnover), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to 1-2-3-5 during 18% Tie-Heavy Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 80 hands on a 85-unit stack, 1-2-3-5 carries 1.83u expected loss (12.87% ruin) vs 1.21u (5.73% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 5-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android