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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · 1-2-3-5 VS FLAT BETTING

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (152-Hand Stress Test)

Combinatorial stress ledger S165-0 tracks 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder versus Flat 1-Unit Baseline across 152 coups (110u bankroll, 75u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 5-hand runs enforce 16.21% vs 6.96% ruin along the commission-adjusted envelope. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

1-2-3-5 Ruin Rate
16.21%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
6.96%
Peak Trough (5-Run)
-27u
EZ High-Tie House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P B B P P B P B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S165 (1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting, Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting (EZ High-Tie)

Stress cell S165 compares 1-2-3-5 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 152 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
16.21% vs 6.96%

Probability of exhausting the 110-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.45u vs 1.63u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 152 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-27u vs -17u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 5-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
26 Ties · 1.18u Drag

Reflects 17.11% tie frequency (26 pushes) and 1.18u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S165 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

1-2-3-5 vs. Flat Betting bankroll-constrained absorption-curve (152 Hands · S165)

Head-to-head matrix S165-1 subjects 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) and Flat Betting (1-1-1-1 constant unit) to 152 hands of EZ High-Tie (high-tie) with 110 units and a 75-unit roof, calibrates 2.45u versus 1.63u in mathematical house hold and 16.21% versus 6.96% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S165-2 tabulates 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder versus Flat 1-Unit Baseline across 152 coups (110u bankroll, 75u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 5-hand runs enforce 16.21% vs 6.96% ruin along the discrete-time trajectory.

S165 absorption-curve1-2-3-5Flat Betting
1-2-3-5 / Flat Betting Rule1-2-3-51-1-1-1 constant unit
152-Hand Ruin (110u)16.21%6.96%
EZ High-Tie Hold (1.0284%)2.45u1.63u
5-Run Trough (75u Cap)-27u-17u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ High-Tie Vigorish (1.18u) & 17.11% Tie Push Audit (S165)

Head-to-head matrix S165-3 subjects 1-2-3-5 (1-2-3-5) and Flat Betting (1-1-1-1 constant unit) to 152 hands of EZ High-Tie (high-tie) with 110 units and a 75-unit roof, models 2.45u versus 1.63u in mathematical house hold and 16.21% versus 6.96% ruin.

Combinatorial stress ledger S165-4 measures 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder versus Flat 1-Unit Baseline across 152 coups (110u bankroll, 75u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0284% house edge and 5-hand runs enforce 16.21% vs 6.96% ruin along the capital-bounded cycle-span.

  • Trial S165: set a 110u stop before running 1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting over 152 hands.
  • Scenario S165 profiles 1.18u in commission drag and 26 tie pushes (17.11% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S165: derived road red marks bankroll-constrained column repetition and blue marks a structural break (absorption-curve), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to 1-2-3-5 during Two-Shoe High-Tie Stall under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 152 hands on a 110-unit stack, 1-2-3-5 carries 2.45u expected loss (16.21% ruin) vs 1.63u (6.96% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 5-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android