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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · 1-2-3-5 VS FLAT BETTING

1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder vs. Flat 1-Unit Baseline — Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (144-Hand Stress Test)

Across 144 resolved and tied deals under EZ Dragon Chop (1.0284% edge), step-indexed comparison S163-0 quantifies 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder against Flat 1-Unit Baseline on a 100-unit bankroll, showing that 3-hand clusters and a 75-unit ceiling drive 20.21% vs 8.39% stop-loss breaches along the eight-deck decay-rate. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

1-2-3-5 Ruin Rate
20.21%
Flat Betting Ruin Rate
8.39%
Peak Trough (3-Run)
-20u
EZ Dragon Chop House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P B B P P B B P B P
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S163 (1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting, Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting (EZ Dragon Chop)

Stress cell S163 compares 1-2-3-5 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 144 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
20.21% vs 8.39%

Probability of exhausting the 100-unit bankroll under a 75-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.32u vs 1.54u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 144 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-20u vs -12u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
14 Ties · 1.11u Drag

Reflects 9.72% tie frequency (14 pushes) and 1.11u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S163 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

1-2-3-5 vs. Flat Betting sequential escalation (144 Hands · S163)

Pairing a 100-unit bankroll against 144 hands of EZ Dragon Chop (1.0284% edge) in cell S163-1 computes 1-2-3-5 at 20.21% ruin and -20u peak trajectory, whereas Flat Betting records 8.39% ruin and -12u below the 75-unit ceiling.

Across 144 resolved and tied deals under EZ Dragon Chop (1.0284% edge), variance-scaled comparison S163-2 maps 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder against Flat 1-Unit Baseline on a 100-unit bankroll, showing that 3-hand clusters and a 75-unit ceiling drive 20.21% vs 8.39% stop-loss breaches along the bankroll-constrained distribution.

S163 escalation1-2-3-5Flat Betting
1-2-3-5 / Flat Betting Rule1-2-3-51-1-1-1 constant unit
144-Hand Ruin (100u)20.21%8.39%
EZ Dragon Chop Hold (1.0284%)2.32u1.54u
3-Run Trough (75u Cap)-20u-12u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ Dragon Chop Vigorish (1.11u) & 9.72% Tie Push Audit (S163)

Pairing a 100-unit bankroll against 144 hands of EZ Dragon Chop (1.0284% edge) in cell S163-3 evaluates 1-2-3-5 at 20.21% ruin and -20u peak cycle-span, whereas Flat Betting records 8.39% ruin and -12u below the 75-unit ceiling.

Across 144 resolved and tied deals under EZ Dragon Chop (1.0284% edge), session-bounded comparison S163-4 charts 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder against Flat 1-Unit Baseline on a 100-unit bankroll, showing that 3-hand clusters and a 75-unit ceiling drive 20.21% vs 8.39% stop-loss breaches along the discrete-time survival-window.

  • Trial S163: set a 100u stop before running 1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting over 144 hands.
  • Scenario S163 audits 1.11u in commission drag and 14 tie pushes (9.72% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S163: derived road red marks sequential column repetition and blue marks a structural break (escalation), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from Flat Betting to 1-2-3-5 during Two-Shoe Doublet Chop under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 144 hands on a 100-unit stack, 1-2-3-5 carries 2.32u expected loss (20.21% ruin) vs 1.54u (8.39% ruin) for Flat Betting.
MythDuring a 3-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android