Within eight-deck testbed S157-0, a 60-unit bankroll facing 72 coups of 5% Comm Chop (chop) and a 50-unit maximum wager computes 15.49% ruin (1.19u expected loss) on 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder versus 5.84% ruin (0.79u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S157 (1-2-3-5 vs Flat Betting, Single-Alternating Chop under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.
Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.
Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).
Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.
Stress cell S157 compares 1-2-3-5 against 1-1-1-1 constant unit over 72 hands.
Probability of exhausting the 60-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.
Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 72 coups.
Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.
Reflects 9.52% tie frequency (7 pushes) and 0.57u in vigorish friction.
In head-to-head trial S157-1 across 72 deals (5% Comm Chop, 1.0579% edge), 1-2-3-5 records a -18u peak threshold and 15.49% ruin probability on a 60-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -10u trough and 5.84% ruin under the 50-unit limit.
Within step-indexed testbed S157-2, a 60-unit bankroll facing 72 coups of 5% Comm Chop (chop) and a 50-unit maximum wager evaluates 15.49% ruin (1.19u expected loss) on 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder versus 5.84% ruin (0.79u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
| S157 ledger | 1-2-3-5 | Flat Betting |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2-3-5 / Flat Betting Rule | 1-2-3-5 | 1-1-1-1 constant unit |
| 72-Hand Ruin (60u) | 15.49% | 5.84% |
| 5% Comm Chop Hold (1.0579%) | 1.19u | 0.79u |
| 2-Run Trough (50u Cap) | -18u | -10u |
In head-to-head trial S157-3 across 72 deals (5% Comm Chop, 1.0579% edge), 1-2-3-5 records a -18u peak footprint and 15.49% ruin probability on a 60-unit stack, whereas Flat Betting logs a -10u trough and 5.84% ruin under the 50-unit limit.
Within variance-scaled testbed S157-4, a 60-unit bankroll facing 72 coups of 5% Comm Chop (chop) and a 50-unit maximum wager inspects 15.49% ruin (1.19u expected loss) on 1-2-3-5 Four-Step Ladder versus 5.84% ruin (0.79u expected loss) on Flat 1-Unit Baseline.
Enter any sequence to inspect the Big Road, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, Cockroach Pig, and next-hand previews.
About 64 minutes of lessons covering outcomes, the Bead Plate, Big Road columns, and dragon tails.
Train Third-Card Rule decisions, depth counting, lookback column references, and derived-road speed recognition.
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Macau Cantonese, French, and mathematical table terms explained in plain English with road diagrams.
Direct answers to real student questions on dragon tails, tie handling, lookback rules, and table variants.
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Plain-English answers on independent trials, progression variance, and scoreboard reading.
Practical bankroll boundaries, stop-loss discipline, and 18+/21+ support resources.
Verify 8-deck combinatorial probabilities, Banker/Player house edge, and commission rules.
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Step-by-step lookback rules for Big Eye Boy (1), Small Road (2), and Cockroach Pig (3).