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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push (148-Hand Stress Test)

In bankroll-constrained comparative trial S346-0, running Fibonacci against D'Alembert for 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak (streak) on 120 units tabulates 4.40u vs 2.63u in expected toll and 17.85% vs 9.97% ruin under a 80-unit pit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
17.85%
D'Alembert Ruin Rate
9.97%
Peak Trough (10-Run)
-53u
EZ Dragon Streak House Edge
1.0284%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P P B B P B P B B P
Big Eye Boy = = = = = = ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = = = = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = =
Cockroach Pig = = = = = = ≠ ≠ = =

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S346 (Fibonacci vs D'Alembert, Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs D'Alembert (EZ Dragon Streak)

Stress cell S346 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against +1 on loss / -1 on win over 148 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
17.85% vs 9.97%

Probability of exhausting the 120-unit bankroll under a 80-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
4.40u vs 2.63u

Theoretical erosion under EZ Baccarat 3-Card 7 Push (1.028% edge) (1.0284% house edge) across 148 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-53u vs -26u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 10-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 2.11u Drag

Reflects 8.78% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 2.11u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S346 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. D'Alembert combinatorial profile (148 Hands · S346)

Under EZ Dragon Streak (1.0284% effective edge), stochastic stress run S346-1 over 148 hands and a 120-unit treasury models a -53u drawdown (17.85% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence against -26u (9.97% ruin) for D'Alembert Pyramid inside a 80-unit cap.

In absorbing-barrier comparative trial S346-2, running Fibonacci against D'Alembert for 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak (streak) on 120 units measures 4.40u vs 2.63u in expected toll and 17.85% vs 9.97% ruin under a 80-unit pit limit.

S346 profileFibonacciD'Alembert
Fibonacci / D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34+1 on loss / -1 on win
148-Hand Ruin (120u)17.85%9.97%
EZ Dragon Streak Hold (1.0284%)4.40u2.63u
10-Run Trough (80u Cap)-53u-26u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

EZ Dragon Streak Vigorish (2.11u) & 8.78% Tie Push Audit (S346)

Under EZ Dragon Streak (1.0284% effective edge), house-edge-anchored stress run S346-3 over 148 hands and a 120-unit treasury dissects a -53u drawdown (17.85% ruin) for Fibonacci Negative Sequence against -26u (9.97% ruin) for D'Alembert Pyramid inside a 80-unit cap.

In eight-deck comparative trial S346-4, running Fibonacci against D'Alembert for 148 hands of EZ Dragon Streak (streak) on 120 units quantifies 4.40u vs 2.63u in expected toll and 17.85% vs 9.97% ruin under a 80-unit pit limit.

  • Trial S346: set a 120u stop before running Fibonacci vs D'Alembert over 148 hands.
  • Scenario S346 maps 2.11u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (8.78% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S346: derived road red marks combinatorial column repetition and blue marks a structural break (profile), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from D'Alembert to Fibonacci during Two-Shoe 10-Deep Streak under EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 Push neutralizes the 1.0284% house edge.
TruthOver 148 hands on a 120-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 4.40u expected loss (17.85% ruin) vs 2.63u (9.97% ruin) for D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 10-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android