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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (75-Hand Stress Test)

Matchup S340-0 models how a 80-unit roll and 60-unit pit maximum govern Fibonacci versus D'Alembert during 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak: capital-bounded exposure divergence pushes primary ruin to 14.58% against 7.81% for the benchmark while benchmarks 1.10u in commission friction. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
14.58%
D'Alembert Ruin Rate
7.81%
Peak Trough (9-Run)
-49u
5% Comm Streak House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B B P P P P B B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = = ≠ ≠
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S340 (Fibonacci vs D'Alembert, 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs D'Alembert (5% Comm Streak)

Stress cell S340 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against +1 on loss / -1 on win over 75 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
14.58% vs 7.81%

Probability of exhausting the 80-unit bankroll under a 60-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.29u vs 1.37u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 75 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-49u vs -28u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 9-hand run inside the streak shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
6 Ties · 1.10u Drag

Reflects 8.4% tie frequency (6 pushes) and 1.10u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S340 · STREAK SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. D'Alembert step-indexed turnover (75 Hands · S340)

During 75 deals of 5% Comm Streak (streak) in audit S340-1, Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) and D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) navigate 6 tie pushes on a 80-unit roll with a 60-unit cap, measures 14.58% vs 7.81% ruin and 1.10u in commission drag.

Matchup S340-2 dissects how a 80-unit roll and 60-unit pit maximum govern Fibonacci versus D'Alembert during 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak: bankroll-constrained profile divergence pushes primary ruin to 14.58% against 7.81% for the benchmark while computes 1.10u in commission friction.

S340 turnoverFibonacciD'Alembert
Fibonacci / D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34+1 on loss / -1 on win
75-Hand Ruin (80u)14.58%7.81%
5% Comm Streak Hold (1.0579%)2.29u1.37u
9-Run Trough (60u Cap)-49u-28u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm Streak Vigorish (1.10u) & 8.4% Tie Push Audit (S340)

During 75 deals of 5% Comm Streak (streak) in audit S340-3, Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) and D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) navigate 6 tie pushes on a 80-unit roll with a 60-unit cap, quantifies 14.58% vs 7.81% ruin and 1.10u in commission drag.

Matchup S340-4 computes how a 80-unit roll and 60-unit pit maximum govern Fibonacci versus D'Alembert during 75 hands of 5% Comm Streak: absorbing-barrier boundary divergence pushes primary ruin to 14.58% against 7.81% for the benchmark while verifies 1.10u in commission friction.

  • Trial S340: set a 80u stop before running Fibonacci vs D'Alembert over 75 hands.
  • Scenario S340 dissects 1.10u in commission drag and 6 tie pushes (8.4% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S340: derived road red marks step-indexed column repetition and blue marks a structural break (turnover), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from D'Alembert to Fibonacci during 9-Hand Dragon Streak Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 75 hands on a 80-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 2.29u expected loss (14.58% ruin) vs 1.37u (7.81% ruin) for D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 9-hand streak sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android