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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers (210-Hand Stress Test)

In head-to-head trial S350-0 across 210 deals (Player High-Tie, 1.2351% edge), Fibonacci records a -29u peak absorption-curve and 31.31% ruin probability on a 130-unit stack, whereas D'Alembert logs a -19u trough and 13.98% ruin under the 85-unit limit. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
31.31%
D'Alembert Ruin Rate
13.98%
Peak Trough (4-Run)
-29u
Player High-Tie House Edge
1.2351%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P P B B B P P B B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S350 (Fibonacci vs D'Alembert, Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs D'Alembert (Player High-Tie)

Stress cell S350 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against +1 on loss / -1 on win over 210 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
31.31% vs 13.98%

Probability of exhausting the 130-unit bankroll under a 85-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
7.49u vs 4.48u

Theoretical erosion under Even-Money Player Side (1.235% edge) (1.2351% house edge) across 210 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-29u vs -19u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
32 Ties · 3.60u Drag

Reflects 15.24% tie frequency (32 pushes) and 3.60u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S350 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. D'Alembert asymmetric cadence (210 Hands · S350)

Within discrete-time testbed S350-1, a 130-unit bankroll facing 210 coups of Player High-Tie (high-tie) and a 85-unit maximum wager maps 31.31% ruin (7.49u expected loss) on Fibonacci Negative Sequence versus 13.98% ruin (4.48u expected loss) on D'Alembert Pyramid.

In head-to-head trial S350-2 across 210 deals (Player High-Tie, 1.2351% edge), Fibonacci records a -29u peak stake-velocity and 31.31% ruin probability on a 130-unit stack, whereas D'Alembert logs a -19u trough and 13.98% ruin under the 85-unit limit.

S350 cadenceFibonacciD'Alembert
Fibonacci / D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34+1 on loss / -1 on win
210-Hand Ruin (130u)31.31%13.98%
Player High-Tie Hold (1.2351%)7.49u4.48u
4-Run Trough (85u Cap)-29u-19u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

Player High-Tie Vigorish (3.60u) & 15.24% Tie Push Audit (S350)

Within capital-bounded testbed S350-3, a 130-unit bankroll facing 210 coups of Player High-Tie (high-tie) and a 85-unit maximum wager charts 31.31% ruin (7.49u expected loss) on Fibonacci Negative Sequence versus 13.98% ruin (4.48u expected loss) on D'Alembert Pyramid.

In head-to-head trial S350-4 across 210 deals (Player High-Tie, 1.2351% edge), Fibonacci records a -29u peak drawdown-slope and 31.31% ruin probability on a 130-unit stack, whereas D'Alembert logs a -19u trough and 13.98% ruin under the 85-unit limit.

  • Trial S350: set a 130u stop before running Fibonacci vs D'Alembert over 210 hands.
  • Scenario S350 charts 3.60u in commission drag and 32 tie pushes (15.24% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S350: derived road red marks asymmetric column repetition and blue marks a structural break (cadence), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from D'Alembert to Fibonacci during Three-Shoe 15% Tie Density on Even-Money Player Wagers neutralizes the 1.2351% house edge.
TruthOver 210 hands on a 130-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 7.49u expected loss (31.31% ruin) vs 4.48u (13.98% ruin) for D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 4-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android