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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (78-Hand Stress Test)

Evaluating Fibonacci vs D'Alembert in scenario S341-0 (78 hands, 75u stack, 50u table limit) tracks how 13 tie stalls (16.67%) and a 4-coup run shape asymmetric turnover, yielding 20.78% vs 8.87% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
20.78%
D'Alembert Ruin Rate
8.87%
Peak Trough (4-Run)
-26u
5% Comm High-Tie House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B P P P P B B B B P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = = ≠ = ≠ = = = = = ≠ ≠ =
Small Road = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = ≠ = ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S341 (Fibonacci vs D'Alembert, 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 4 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs D'Alembert (5% Comm High-Tie)

Stress cell S341 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against +1 on loss / -1 on win over 78 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
20.78% vs 8.87%

Probability of exhausting the 75-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.38u vs 1.42u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 78 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-26u vs -15u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 4-hand run inside the high-tie shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
13 Ties · 1.14u Drag

Reflects 16.67% tie frequency (13 pushes) and 1.14u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S341 · HIGH-TIE SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. D'Alembert drawdown-weighted escalation (78 Hands · S341)

Stress test S341-1 calibrates Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) against D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) inside a 75-unit bankroll over 78 hands (5% Comm High-Tie, high-tie), where a 50-unit table ceiling produces 20.78% vs 8.87% ruin rates and documents 1.14u in finite-shoe vigorish drag.

Evaluating Fibonacci vs D'Alembert in scenario S341-2 (78 hands, 75u stack, 50u table limit) tabulates how 13 tie stalls (16.67%) and a 4-coup run shape commission-adjusted decay-rate, yielding 20.78% vs 8.87% ruin.

S341 escalationFibonacciD'Alembert
Fibonacci / D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34+1 on loss / -1 on win
78-Hand Ruin (75u)20.78%8.87%
5% Comm High-Tie Hold (1.0579%)2.38u1.42u
4-Run Trough (50u Cap)-26u-15u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

5% Comm High-Tie Vigorish (1.14u) & 16.67% Tie Push Audit (S341)

Stress test S341-3 models Fibonacci Negative Sequence (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) against D'Alembert Pyramid (+1 on loss / -1 on win) inside a 75-unit bankroll over 78 hands (5% Comm High-Tie, high-tie), where a 50-unit table ceiling produces 20.78% vs 8.87% ruin rates and models 1.14u in multi-coup vigorish drag.

Evaluating Fibonacci vs D'Alembert in scenario S341-4 (78 hands, 75u stack, 50u table limit) measures how 13 tie stalls (16.67%) and a 4-coup run shape discrete-time threshold, yielding 20.78% vs 8.87% ruin.

  • Trial S341: set a 75u stop before running Fibonacci vs D'Alembert over 78 hands.
  • Scenario S341 profiles 1.14u in commission drag and 13 tie pushes (16.67% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S341: derived road red marks drawdown-weighted column repetition and blue marks a structural break (escalation), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from D'Alembert to Fibonacci during 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 78 hands on a 75-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 2.38u expected loss (20.78% ruin) vs 1.42u (8.87% ruin) for D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 4-hand high-tie sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android