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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT
Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — 16% High-Tie Cluster Shoe under 5% Banker Commission (78-Hand Stress Test)
Evaluating Fibonacci vs D'Alembert in scenario S341-0 (78 hands, 75u stack, 50u table limit) tracks how 13 tie stalls (16.67%) and a 4-coup run shape asymmetric turnover, yielding 20.78% vs 8.87% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.
- Fibonacci Ruin Rate
- 20.78%
- D'Alembert Ruin Rate
- 8.87%
- Peak Trough (4-Run)
- -26u
- 5% Comm High-Tie House Edge
- 1.0579%