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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — Ping-Pong Chop Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay (70-Hand Stress Test)

Pairing a 65-unit bankroll against 70 hands of No-Comm Chop (1.4579% edge) in cell S342-0 profiles Fibonacci at 17.80% ruin and -19u peak drawdown-slope, whereas D'Alembert records 9.40% ruin and -12u below the 50-unit ceiling. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
17.80%
D'Alembert Ruin Rate
9.40%
Peak Trough (2-Run)
-19u
No-Comm Chop House Edge
1.4579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B P B P B P B B P P B
Big Eye Boy = = = = ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠
Small Road = = ≠ ≠ = = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ = ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S342 (Fibonacci vs D'Alembert, Ping-Pong Chop Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 4 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 3 with Column 1, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 3 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 3, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 6 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 5 with Column 2, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 5 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 5, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs D'Alembert (No-Comm Chop)

Stress cell S342 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against +1 on loss / -1 on win over 70 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
17.80% vs 9.40%

Probability of exhausting the 65-unit bankroll under a 50-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
2.95u vs 1.76u

Theoretical erosion under No-Commission Banker 6 (0.50:1 on 6) (1.4579% house edge) across 70 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-19u vs -12u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 2-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
7 Ties · 1.83u Drag

Reflects 9.55% tie frequency (7 pushes) and 1.83u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S342 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. D'Alembert non-stationary distribution (70 Hands · S342)

Across 70 resolved and tied deals under No-Comm Chop (1.4579% edge), step-indexed comparison S342-1 verifies Fibonacci Negative Sequence against D'Alembert Pyramid on a 65-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 17.80% vs 9.40% stop-loss breaches along the drawdown-weighted drawdown-slope.

Pairing a 65-unit bankroll against 70 hands of No-Comm Chop (1.4579% edge) in cell S342-2 benchmarks Fibonacci at 17.80% ruin and -19u peak volatility-band, whereas D'Alembert records 9.40% ruin and -12u below the 50-unit ceiling.

S342 distributionFibonacciD'Alembert
Fibonacci / D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34+1 on loss / -1 on win
70-Hand Ruin (65u)17.80%9.40%
No-Comm Chop Hold (1.4579%)2.95u1.76u
2-Run Trough (50u Cap)-19u-12u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

No-Comm Chop Vigorish (1.83u) & 9.55% Tie Push Audit (S342)

Across 70 resolved and tied deals under No-Comm Chop (1.4579% edge), variance-scaled comparison S342-3 tracks Fibonacci Negative Sequence against D'Alembert Pyramid on a 65-unit bankroll, showing that 2-hand clusters and a 50-unit ceiling drive 17.80% vs 9.40% stop-loss breaches along the finite-shoe footprint.

Pairing a 65-unit bankroll against 70 hands of No-Comm Chop (1.4579% edge) in cell S342-4 calibrates Fibonacci at 17.80% ruin and -19u peak survival-window, whereas D'Alembert records 9.40% ruin and -12u below the 50-unit ceiling.

  • Trial S342: set a 65u stop before running Fibonacci vs D'Alembert over 70 hands.
  • Scenario S342 quantifies 1.83u in commission drag and 7 tie pushes (9.55% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S342: derived road red marks non-stationary column repetition and blue marks a structural break (distribution), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from D'Alembert to Fibonacci during Ping-Pong Chop Shoe under No-Commission Banker 6 Half-Pay neutralizes the 1.4579% house edge.
TruthOver 70 hands on a 65-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 2.95u expected loss (17.80% ruin) vs 1.76u (9.40% ruin) for D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 2-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android