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STAGE 2 STRESS TEST · FIBONACCI VS D'ALEMBERT

Fibonacci Negative Sequence vs. D'Alembert Pyramid — Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission (288-Hand Stress Test)

Head-to-head matrix S351-0 subjects Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) and D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) to 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) with 160 units and a 100-unit roof, measures 8.80u versus 5.26u in mathematical house hold and 28.39% versus 15.70% ruin. Because every 8-deck coup is statistically independent under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% edge), progression rules alter drawdown speed and table-cap collisions without changing per-hand expectation.

Fibonacci Ruin Rate
28.39%
D'Alembert Ruin Rate
15.70%
Peak Trough (3-Run)
-26u
4-Shoe Chop House Edge
1.0579%
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road P P B B B P P P B B B P P B B P
Big Eye Boy = ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ = =
Small Road = ≠ ≠ = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig = = ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Stress Cell S351 (Fibonacci vs D'Alembert, Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission). Big Road shows Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads track symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 2 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 1 column back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Small Road Mark #2

This bead is at Row 3. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

  1. Column 3 goes down to Row 3, so use Rule 2: look 2 columns back, at Column 1.
  2. Column 1 stopped at Row 2, one row above → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 1 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 1, 3 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Matchup & Shoe Profile
Fibonacci vs D'Alembert (4-Shoe Chop)

Stress cell S351 compares 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 against +1 on loss / -1 on win over 288 hands.

Head-to-Head Ruin Rate
28.39% vs 15.70%

Probability of exhausting the 160-unit bankroll under a 100-unit house bet limit.

Expected Session Hold
8.80u vs 5.26u

Theoretical erosion under 5% Banker Commission (0.95:1) (1.0579% house edge) across 288 coups.

Peak Drawdown Excursion
-26u vs -13u

Deepest unit trough triggered by a 3-hand run inside the chop shoe profile.

Tie Stalls & Commission Toll
27 Ties · 4.22u Drag

Reflects 9.38% tie frequency (27 pushes) and 4.22u in vigorish friction.

STRESS CELL S351 · CHOP SHOE PROFILE

Fibonacci vs. D'Alembert absorbing-barrier dispersion (288 Hands · S351)

Combinatorial stress ledger S351-1 dissects Fibonacci Negative Sequence versus D'Alembert Pyramid across 288 coups (160u bankroll, 100u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 28.39% vs 15.70% ruin along the combinatorial ledger.

Head-to-head matrix S351-2 subjects Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) and D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) to 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) with 160 units and a 100-unit roof, quantifies 8.80u versus 5.26u in mathematical house hold and 28.39% versus 15.70% ruin.

S351 dispersionFibonacciD'Alembert
Fibonacci / D'Alembert Rule1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34+1 on loss / -1 on win
288-Hand Ruin (160u)28.39%15.70%
4-Shoe Chop Hold (1.0579%)8.80u5.26u
3-Run Trough (100u Cap)-26u-13u
VIGORISH & TABLE CEILING INTERACTION

4-Shoe Chop Vigorish (4.22u) & 9.38% Tie Push Audit (S351)

Combinatorial stress ledger S351-3 computes Fibonacci Negative Sequence versus D'Alembert Pyramid across 288 coups (160u bankroll, 100u max bet), demonstrating that 1.0579% house edge and 3-hand runs enforce 28.39% vs 15.70% ruin along the asymmetric excursion.

Head-to-head matrix S351-4 subjects Fibonacci (1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34) and D'Alembert (+1 on loss / -1 on win) to 288 hands of 4-Shoe Chop (chop) with 160 units and a 100-unit roof, maps 8.80u versus 5.26u in mathematical house hold and 28.39% versus 15.70% ruin.

  • Trial S351: set a 160u stop before running Fibonacci vs D'Alembert over 288 hands.
  • Scenario S351 tabulates 4.22u in commission drag and 27 tie pushes (9.38% Tie rate).
  • Board rule S351: derived road red marks absorbing-barrier column repetition and blue marks a structural break (dispersion), never Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythSwitching from D'Alembert to Fibonacci during Four-Shoe Alternating Sawtooth under 5% Banker Commission neutralizes the 1.0579% house edge.
TruthOver 288 hands on a 160-unit stack, Fibonacci carries 8.80u expected loss (28.39% ruin) vs 5.26u (15.70% ruin) for D'Alembert.
MythDuring a 3-hand chop sequence, red marks on Big Eye Boy or Small Road indicate Banker is favored next.
TruthDerived road colors never represent Banker or Player: red denotes repeatingBig Road structure and blue denotes breaking structure.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android