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STAGE 2 BANKROLL MATRIX · FIBONACCI · 75U / 3-SHOE

Fibonacci Negative Sequence — 75-Unit Bankroll & 3-Shoe (216-Hand) Risk-of-Ruin Matrix

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), non-stationary simulation M237-0 for Fibonacci Negative Sequence on a 75-unit bankroll dissects a 43.72% risk-of-ruin figure, measures 9 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 22.45% mid-corridor finish rate. Every 8-deck hand remains statistically independent (45.86% Banker, 44.62% Player, 9.52% Tie), meaning progression sizing reshapes session variance without altering the house edge.

Ruin Rate (-38u Stop)
43.72%
Target Hit (+19u Cap)
33.84%
216-Hand Expected Hold
6.15u
Table Max (6-Step Depth)
60u
Engine-Verified Scoreboard · 18 Hands

Read the Board at Table Speed

Open this shoe in /calculator
Big Road B B P P B B B P P B B P P B P B
Big Eye Boy = = ≠ = ≠ ≠ = = = = = = ≠ =
Small Road ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = = = ≠ ≠
Cockroach Pig ≠ = = ≠ ≠ ≠ ≠ = = ≠ ≠

Reference 8-deck shoe for Matrix Cell M237 (Fibonacci Negative Sequence, 75u bankroll, 216 hands). Big Road and Bead Plate show Banker (red) and Player (blue); derived roads record structural symmetry.

Big Road B is Banker, P is Player Roads under it Red (=): repeating Blue (≠): breaking
Step-by-Step Mark Proofs (Rule 1 & Rule 2)
Big Eye Boy Mark #2

Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

  1. Column 3 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 2 with Column 1, 1 column further back.
  2. Column 2 has 2 beads. Column 1 has 2 beads. Same depth → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 2, the one that just finished, with Column 1.

Small Road Mark #2

Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

  1. Column 5 starts, so use Rule 1: compare Column 4 with Column 2, 2 columns further back.
  2. Column 4 has 1 bead. Column 2 has 2 beads. Different depth → blue (≠).

Common table reading watchout: Comparing the wrong columns. Compare Column 4, the one that just finished, with Column 2.

Cockroach Pig Mark #2

This bead is at Row 2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

  1. Column 5 goes down to Row 2, so use Rule 2: look 3 columns back, at Column 2.
  2. Column 2 has a bead at Row 2 too → red (=).

Common table reading watchout: Thinking "no bead at this row" means blue. It is blue only when Column 2 stopped exactly one row above this bead.

Verified Reference Data

Key Facts & Table Specifications

Session Bankroll & Horizon
75u / 3 Shoes (216 Hands)

Matrix cell M237 tests Fibonacci Negative Sequence with a $50 base unit and -38u/+19u absorbing boundaries.

Stop-Loss Ruin Probability
43.72%

Probability of hitting the -38u drawdown barrier before completing 216 hands or reaching +19u.

Stop-Win Target Completion
33.84%

Share of 216-hand trajectories reaching the +19u session ceiling, with 22.45% ending between barriers.

Table Limit Survival Depth
6 Steps (60u Cap)

A 60-unit house limit and 75-unit stack cap Fibonacci escalation after 6 adverse coups.

Expected Session House Hold
6.15u ($308)

Derived from 451u total action (2.09x average wager) multiplied by the 1.0579% 8-deck Banker edge.

MATRIX CELL M237 · STOP-LOSS & STOP-WIN GEOMETRY

Fibonacci 75u non-stationary exposure Across 216 Hands (M237)

Cell M237-1 evaluates the table-capped volatility-band of a 75-unit Fibonacci plan over 216 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 60-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 451u and sets ruin at 43.72%.

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), house-edge-anchored simulation M237-2 for Fibonacci Negative Sequence on a 75-unit bankroll audits a 43.72% risk-of-ruin figure, quantifies 9 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 22.45% mid-corridor finish rate.

M237 ParameterFibonacci (75u)3-Shoe exposure
Fibonacci Ladder1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34 (9 steps)Peak 34u multiplier on M237
75u Stack Window216 hands (3 shoes)Barriers -38u / +19u
60u Ceiling & Ruin43.72% ruin vs 33.84% winDepth 6 steps (9 cap hits)
451u Handle & Hold6.15u ($308)Multiplier 2.09x (non-stationary drift)
STEP ESCALATION & TURNOVER AUDIT

60u Ceiling Collisions & Fibonacci Turnover (3 Shoes)

Cell M237-3 tracks the stochastic survival-window of a 75-unit Fibonacci plan over 216 hands: because each hand remains independent at 1.058% Banker edge, scaling stakes toward the 60-unit ceiling elevates total turnover to 451u and sets ruin at 43.72%.

Across 216 eight-deck hands (3 shoes), sequential simulation M237-4 for Fibonacci Negative Sequence on a 75-unit bankroll measures a 43.72% risk-of-ruin figure, maps 9 ceiling-collision events against the 60-unit cap and a 22.45% mid-corridor finish rate.

  • Cell M237 rule: lock the -38u stop on your 75u Fibonacci stack across 216 hands.
  • Matrix M237 quantifies 6.15u ($308) in house hold over 451u of Fibonacci action.
  • Scoreboard check M237: Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig use red for repeating symmetry (non-stationary exposure) and blue for pattern breaks—never for Banker or Player.
Table Reality Check

Myth vs. Truth

MythBringing 75 units to a 3-shoe session lets Fibonacci Negative Sequence overcome the 1.058% Banker house edge.
TruthNo bankroll size alters per-hand expectation: over 216 hands, Fibonacci generates 451u in action, 6.15u in expected loss, and a 43.72% stop-loss ruin rate.
MythDerived road colors on the scoreboard tell Fibonacci bettors whether Banker (red) or Player (blue) is due during a 216-hand run.
TruthOn Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig, red indicates repeating column structure and blue indicates breaking structure; neither color represents Banker or Player.
6 modules · 36 lessons · $25/month · Module 1 (10 lessons) free

Read Every Derived Road at Table Speed

Every reference guide, glossary definition, and road calculator on Baccarat Smart is open for everyone. When you want all 6 modules and 36 lessons (about 5.5 hours of lessons) organized in structured step-by-step order with 74 hands-on boards, 94 quiz checks along the way, and Cloud Shoe Log sync across web, iPhone, and Android, start Module 1 (10 lessons, about 64 minutes of lessons) free or unlock full membership for $25 a month.

  • Structured step-by-step track across Foundations, Big Eye Boy, Small Road, and Cockroach Pig
  • 74 interactive lesson scoreboards and 94 inline quiz checks with plain-English mark feedback
  • Cloud Shoe Log and cross-device progress on web, iOS, and Android